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The Tampa Bay Rays have now lost three of their last four, as they come into this interleague game with the Cincinnati Reds It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Rays-Reds prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Rays started hot this year, but have cooled off in their last four games. The big hits were not there last night for the Rays, going 0-10 with runners in scoring position, while Josh Lowe provided their only offense with a solo home run. The Rays use three pitchers in the game, with Jalen Beeks opening it. He went three innings giving up just one run, but in the fourth the Reds broke it opening, scoring three off Kevin Kelly and the Rays fell. Hunter Greene pitched well for the Reds but left the game with a leg contusion. It should not keep him out long, as the Reds get ready for game two of the series.
Here are the Rays-Reds MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rays-Reds Odds
Tampa Bay Reds: -1.5 (+128)
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-154)
Over: 9 (-122)
Under: 9 (+100)
How To Watch Rays vs. Reds
TV: BSSUN/BSOH
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
The Rays may all of a sudden have a pitching issue. Jeffery Springs is out, and Zach Efflin has been hurt this year. Earlier in the year, it was Taj Bradley who got the call-up and start in place of Efflin, but right after his start, he was optioned to Triple-A Durham. That did not last long, Bradley is slated to get his second start of the season tonight. Tampa saw their league-leading ERA last night become second in baseball, rising to 2.88 with the eight runs they surrendered. Even worse, the bullpen ERA grew once again. Their bullpen now has an ERA of 3.22, which while 6th in the league, has been steadily climbing. Having to use a smorgasbord of pitchers cannot help either, but the Rays have the offense to make up for it.
The offense that struggled last night is still the league leader in home runs and runs batted in. They also lead the league in slugging and OPS. They are third in the league in batting average and on-base percentage. The offense is good but did not show it last night. Last night was rare, as they left six runners in scoring position. On the season, they are averaging just 3.12 runners left in scoring position per game. The recent stretch of games is indicative of the Rays failing to get timely hits. they are averaging 5.33 runners left in scoring position per game in the last four. That is the 6th worst in baseball in that stretch.
It has been the extra base hit percentage that has seen the biggest decline for the Rays. They currently lead the league with a 10.9 extra-base hit percentage, but that has fallen and is at 6.7% in the last three games. The leader for the Rays in extra-base hits is Wander Franco, who has eight doubles and three home runs on the year. In the last five games though, he has four hits in 20 at-bats with just one for extra bases.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds may not be the best offense in the league, but they have been good. They are 12th in baseball with a .251 batting average and 10th with a .337 on-base percentage. The problem for the Reds has been twofold. First, they are striking out too much. The Reds are 22nd in MLB in strikeout rate at 24.2%. With runners on base, that percentage increases. Secondly is their power numbers. Their ISO power, which looks strictly at extra-base hits, is 18th in the league at .147. The Reds can score though. In their seven wins on the season, they are averaging seven runs per game. In their nine losses, they are averaging just 3.33 runs per game.
The offense is led by Jonathan India. India currently has a .424 on-base percentage and a batting average of .316. He has six doubles and a home run which have led to 27 total bases, second on the team. The problem for India has been strikeouts on the season. India has a 12.7% strikeout rate this year, which is the highest on the team, and 22nd in baseball. He is scoring a lot when he gets on base, with 16 runs on the year, third in the league. Spencer Steer has also joined in the strikeout parade. His 13.6% strikeout rate is 26th in MLB, but still, he is getting on base. He is 20th in baseball with an OBP of .424 on the season.
The Reds will start Nick Lodolo tonight on the mound. Lodolo is currently 2-0 on the season with a 2.12 ERA. In his only game not to record a win this year, he gave up zero runs in seven innings of work, with only three hits and 12 strikeouts, but got the no decision. Tonight's start may be determined by his efficiency. He has been right around the 105-pitch mark in each of his three starts, but two starts only took five innings to get there. If the Rays stretch out at-bats and Lodolo is not efficient, they could get to the bullpen early.
Final Rays-Reds Prediction & Pick
The Rays looked lost last night in their 8-1 loss. The question becomes is this the start of the Rays regressing to the mean, or was it a blip in the radar? Regardless, it should be concerning. They need to give run support to their young pitcher making his second-ever start. The Reds limited their strikeouts and got the timely hitting last night. They have the potential to do it again. If the Rays can get to the bullpen, they could see the offense turn around. Lodolo has been great this year but shows the other team that they can drive the pitch count up quickly. That is what happens tonight. Lodolo goes five solid innings, but the Rays get timely late-inning success for the win.
Final Rays-Reds Prediction & Pick: Rays -1.5 (+128)
