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The Boston Red Sox have traveled down to Florida for a crucial series against the rival Tampa Bay Rays. In this post, we're going to continue our MLB odds series by making a Red Sox-Rays prediction and pick using data, intel and some reporting.
Boston managed to steal the first game of the series in extra innings last night, stretching their lead in the AL East to 1.5 games. This is a crucial game for the Rays, as a win puts them within a half-game of the division lead.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Red Sox-Rays odds.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Rays Odds
Boston Red Sox ML (+133)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-144)
Over 9 runs (-102)
Under 9 runs (-118)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox own one of the MLB's most potent offenses, which will always give them a chance to take home a win. As a team, they own the third best batting average in the MLB at .258. to pair with a .759 OPS, also good for third best in the league.
Designated hitter JD Martinez has been one of the best hitters in baseball all season long, and outfielder Alex Verdugo has been incredibly hot lately. These two and the rest of the bats in the lineup could erupt for double-digit runs on any given night, just like they did in the 11th inning last night.
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Opposing starter Rich Hill has been surprisingly good this year, but he hasn't been going deep into games recently. In his last three starts, Hill hasn't pitched more than five innings. Although the Tampa Bay bullpen is a good one, over the last two weeks they haven't been nearly as hot as usual. A slight hangover is certainly possible coming off of an extra innings defeat.
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
While Boston's advantage comes from its lineup, the Rays will look to find an advantage on the mound.
The Red Sox will send pitcher Garrett Richards to the mound for this game, a fact that should give some faith to Tampa Bay fans. In Richards' last three starts, he hasn't gone more than five innings while managing to allow three or more runs in each start. Tampa Bay should be able to get to Richards within the first four innings, setting up a potentially long day of work for the Boston bullpen that also had to pitch into extras last inning.
Although the Rays lineup hasn't looked great as of late, they just received what could turn out to be a huge boost. Highly touted prospect Wander Franco arrived in the major leagues last night, and what an arrival it was. Franco had two hits, one of which was a home run. Franco should provide a spark to Tampa Bay's lineup again tonight, helping outfielder Randy Arozarena put some runs up against a subpar pitcher.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick
With the Red Sox playing great offensive baseball and the Rays facing a poor pitcher, this seems like a perfect storm for plenty of runs. Hill and the Rays bullpen are unlikely to hold up for nine innings against a deadly Red Sox lineup, while Richards is a great pitcher to help the slumping Rays break out. There should be more fireworks in Tampa Bay tonight.
FINAL PICK: Over 9 runs (-102)
