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It is the rubber match of a three-game series between the Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Red Sox prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Yesterday, Emmanuel Valdez made his MLB debut for the Red Sox, going 2-4, but the Red Sox fell 10-4 to the Twins, as Joey Gallo hit a three-run home run in his return to the lineup. In the win, the Twins shelled Corey Kluber, scoring seven runs off him in five innings. Joe Ryan gave up just three in six innings, earning his fourth win of the year, as Brent Headrick got a three-inning save to close out the game. The day before in a ten-inning affair, in which the Twins wasted Sonny Grays one run in five-inning effort, they burnt through five relievers. They only needed one last night as this series is tied 1-1 going into game three.
Here are the Twins-Red Sox MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Red Sox Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-182)
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 9 (-110)
Under: 9 (-110)
How To Watch Twins vs. Red Sox
TV: BSNO/NESN
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 1:35 PM ET/ 10:35 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
The Twins have quietly put together one of the best pitching staff in baseball so far this year. On the season they have a team ERA of 2.69 which is the second-best in baseball. The team's WHIP is 1.00, which is the best in baseball. The Twins are second in strikeouts, at 185, and second in opponent batting average. They have walked the least amount of guys in the majors as well. The only sour point for the Twins' pitching staff has been the fact they have given up 20 home runs, which is 15th in the majors.
It is not just the starters doing this, the bullpen has been great as well. Jorge Lopez has pitched 7.2 innings and has yet to give up a single run. Elilio Paga has given up one run in 6.1 innings of work. Griffin Jax has given up two runs in 8.1 innings. The overall bullpen ERA is 2.77, fifth in the MLB. Starting today will be Kenta Maeda. His two starts of the season have left him 0-2. He has pitched 11 innings so far this year and given up five runs. In the first start, he only gave up one run, but the Twins lost 1-0 to the Marlins. In the second start, the bullpen gave the Twins a chance to come back, but they fell 4-3.
The Twins' stellar pitching has not gotten the run support they need. The team is hitting just .225 which is 26th in MLB and their 77 runs scored on the season is 23rd. While Trevor Larnach leads the team in RBIs with 13, it is the return of Joey Gallo that should have the Twins excited. He is second on the team with ten RBIs and still leads the team in home runs, despite playing less than half the games on the year.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox are scoring. They are third in all of baseball with 100 runs on the season. The Sox are doing this despite not being on base a ton. They are currently 16th in the major with a .322 on-base percentage, and 17th in batting average at .249. Rafael Devers is leading the way in this regard. With 17 RBIs he leads the team, thanks in large part to his seven home runs on the season. The second leading RBI guy, Adam Duvall, is still out with a wrist injury, and the Red Sox do need someone to step up for that production. Enrique Hernandez has driven in nine just on the year, while Rob Refsnyder has driven in seven, but there is still a void there.
The biggest concern for the Red Sox has been the pitching. They currently have a team ERA of 5.20, which is 25th in the bigs. Their WHIP of 1.36 is 19th in MLB, and the 28 home runs they have given up is the second most. The issue has been the starting pitching. The bullpen currently has an ERA of 3.47 and has only given up five of the 28 home runs on the season. Started Corey Kluber and Chris Sale are both over 8.00 in ERA this year. Both have WHIPs at 1.50. They have been bad this year, and the Red Sox need better starting pitching.
Attempting that today will be Tanner Houck. He has given up two or more runs in each of his first three starts and has yet to get an out in the 6th inning this year. He has improved through the season though. His strikeouts have done up each game, as his home runs have gone down. While not stellar, he has been one of the better-starting pitchers for the Red Sox. He is also getting solid run support, leading to a 2-0 record.
Final Twins-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
While the series is tied at 1-1, the Twins have been the better team in the series. The problem for today is how well will Madea pitch. If he is average, the Red Sox will take advantage, and the Twins will need to score some runs. If he is a little better than average, the Twins should have enough to take this one. This game will come down to who can hit the starter faster and stronger. Joey Gallo will help that, and the Sox are missing some key bats. Gallo hits another bomb, and the Twins win.
Final Twins-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Twins +1.5 (-182)
