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UFC Baku: Jamahal Hill versus Khalil Rountree Jr. kicks off the prelims with a fight between Mohammad Usman and Hamdy Abdelwahab in the heavyweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Usman-Abdelwahab prediction and pick.
Mohammad Usman (10-4) enters UFC Baku looking to rebound after back-to-back unanimous decision losses to Thomas Petersen and Mick Parkin. Usman, who previously notched wins over Jake Collier and Junior Tafa, aims to reestablish himself by halting Hamdy Abdelwahab’s momentum and getting back in the win column this Saturday night.
Hamdy Abdelwahab (4-0, 1 NC) returned from a lengthy suspension to edge Jamal Pogues by split decision in his UFC comeback, despite battling illness and ring rust. Now, Abdelwahab looks to maintain his unbeaten record by turning back Mohammad Usman and making a statement at UFC Baku this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Mohammad Usman-Hamdy Abdelwahab Odds
Mohammad Usman: +136
Hamdy Abdelwahab: -162
Over 2.5 rounds: -245
Under 2.5 rounds: +185
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Why Mohammad Usman Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Thomas Petersen – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 (4 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Mohammad Usman enters UFC Baku with a clear path to victory over Hamdy Abdelwahab, thanks to his well-rounded skill set and ability to adapt under pressure. Usman’s striking is more technical, and he utilizes his reach advantage effectively, keeping opponents at bay with jabs and movement.
While Abdelwahab relies heavily on his wrestling, Usman has faced and overcome strong wrestlers before, showing improved takedown defense and the ability to get back to his feet when grounded. Usman’s experience against higher-level competition in the UFC has sharpened his fight IQ, allowing him to make in-fight adjustments that can neutralize Abdelwahab’s single-dimensional approach.
Abdelwahab’s recent performances have shown signs of decline, with his cardio and output dropping significantly after the first round, leaving him vulnerable to opponents who can maintain a steady pace. Usman, on the other hand, has demonstrated consistent conditioning and the ability to control the tempo of a fight, especially in later rounds.
If Usman can stuff Abdelwahab’s early takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, he will be able to outstrike and frustrate his opponent over three rounds. This strategic approach gives Usman the edge to secure a decision victory and reestablish his momentum in the heavyweight division.
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Why Hamdy Abdelwahab Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jamal Pogues – DEC
- Last 5: 4-0
- Finishes: 3 (3 KO/TKO)
Hamdy Abdelwahab’s Olympic-level Greco-Roman wrestling pedigree gives him a decisive edge against Mohammad Usman this weekend. He has demonstrated the ability to dictate where the fight takes place, using powerful takedowns and relentless top pressure to control opponents, as seen in his recent split decision win over Jamal Pogues.
Usman has struggled against strong wrestlers in the past, often getting taken down and controlled for long stretches. Abdelwahab’s ground-and-pound is particularly punishing, and if he secures top position, he can rack up damage and points while neutralizing Usman’s striking advantage.
While Usman is known for his athleticism and reach, Abdelwahab’s explosiveness in the opening rounds allows him to close the distance quickly and initiate grappling exchanges before Usman can establish his jab or rhythm. Hamdy’s experience in high-pressure environments, from the Olympics to the UFC, has forged a mental toughness that could prove pivotal in a close contest.
If Abdelwahab can maintain his pace and avoid gassing out, he is likely to outwork Usman over three rounds, landing takedowns and controlling the action on the mat. This strategy positions Hamdy Abdelwahab to secure a hard-fought decision victory and keep his unbeaten UFC record intact.
Final Mohammad Usman-Hamdy Abdelwahab Prediction & Pick
This heavyweight clash at UFC Baku features Mohammad Usman looking to rebound from a two-fight skid, while Hamdy Abdelwahab aims to remain undefeated in his MMA career. Usman’s path to victory relies on his ability to keep the fight standing, using his reach and jab to frustrate Abdelwahab and avoid the takedown attempts that have troubled him in the past.
Abdelwahab’s Olympic-level wrestling is a clear advantage, and if he can secure early takedowns, he has the tools to control Usman on the mat and rack up points with ground-and-pound. However, Abdelwahab’s performances have been inconsistent, often winning close split decisions rather than dominating his opponents.
If Usman can defend enough takedowns and maintain distance, his striking volume and movement could allow him to outpoint Abdelwahab over three rounds. On the other hand, if Abdelwahab is able to impose his wrestling, he could grind out another decision victory.
Given the odds and the matchup dynamics, Abdelwahab is the betting favorite, but Usman’s experience and striking give him a real shot at the upset. However, Hamdy Abdelwahab should narrowly edge out a decision win thanks to timely takedowns and top control to remain undefeated.
Final Mohammad Usman-Hamdy Abdelwahab Prediction & Pick: Hamdy Abdelwahab (-162), Over 2.5 rounds (-245)
