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The Philadelphia 76ers (12-9) face the Cleveland Cavaliers (13-8) on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a 76ers-Cavaliers prediction and pick.
Philadelphia has won three consecutive games and sits in fifth place in the Eastern Conference. The 76ers are 12-8-1 against the spread with 52% of their games going under. Cleveland has lost two of their last three games but still resides in third in the East. The Cavaliers are 11-8-2 against the spread with 52% of their games going under. This will be the first of three matchups between the Eastern Conference foes. Philly won all four meetings with Cleveland last season.
Here are the 76ers-Cavaliers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: 76ers-Cavaliers Odds
Philadelphia 76ers: +3.5 (-110)
Cleveland Cavaliers: -3.5 (-110)
Over: 209.5 (-112)
Under: 209.5 (-108)
Why The 76ers Could Cover The Spread
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Philadelphia has finally become the defensive-minded team they had hoped to be coming into the season. All it took was injuries to both of their starting guards. In the wake of prolonged injuries to James Harden and Tyrese Maxey, the 76ers have transformed the identity of their team. Philly ranks first in scoring defense and holds opponents to the lowest three-point percentage in the league. The 76ers struggled to score at times, however, placing 24th in points per game and 15th in offensive efficiency. They have done themselves no favors on the glass either, ranking in the bottom ten in both rebounding differential and rebound rate.
With Harden and Maxey out the team has had to rely even more on superstar center Joel Embiid. Embiid has put together another outstanding statistical season. Although he's played just 13 games, Embiid's 32.1 PPG would rank second in the league. He's been incredibly efficient shooting 51.9% from the field. However, it's his work from the charity stripe which is most notable. Despite being 7'0″ tall and shooting 12.2 free throw attempts per game, Embiid knocks down a solid 84.3% from the free throw line. In addition to scoring, he chips in 9.9 RPG, 4.8 APG, and 1.8 BPG. The Cavaliers will be without center Jarrett Allen – aiding Embiid's chances of a monster performance.
If the 76ers are going to cover, it will be because one of their role players steps up. In recent games, that responsibility has fallen on the shoulders of fifth-year guard Shake Milton. Milton is in the midst of arguably the best stretch of his career. Over his last seven games, Milton has averaged 22 PPG, 6.6 APG, and 5.9 RPG. Philly has gone 5-2 over that stretch as his impact is something worth keeping in mind when making a 76ers-Cavaliers prediction.
Why The Cavaliers Could Cover The Spread
Cleveland cooled off somewhat from their torrid start to the season but remains a top-flight team in the Eastern Conference. Their ability to control the game defensively and on the glass continues to stand out. The Cavaliers rank second in both scoring defense and defensive efficiency. Cleveland also finds itself near the top of the league in both rebound differential (third) and rebound rate (sixth). While their strengths lie on the defensive end of the floor, that is not to say their offense is inept. The Cavaliers may rank just 14th in scoring, but with an efficiency rating inside the top ten, they are certainly capable of putting up points in bunches.
Cleveland's offense revolves first and foremost around their two dynamic guards. Donovan Mitchell (28.9 PPG) and Darius Garland (22.9 PPG) pace the team in scoring as they account for 46% of the team's offense. Both guards are uber-efficient. Mitchell, despite ranking seventh in the league in scoring, shoots 48.8% from the field and 41% from three. Garland is just behind him with a 44.1 FG% and 40.6 3P%. Where Garland does best Mitchell is through his distributing. Garland's 8.1 APG ranks fifth in the NBA. Cleveland's backcourt gives opposing teams fits on a night-to-night basis and given how inexperienced Philly's current guards are, expect them to have no issues carrying the load.
The Cavaliers' best chance to cover will come in the paint, however. With center Jarrett Allen out it will fall on the shoulders of second-year big man Evan Mobley to slow down opposing center Joel Embiid. Last season Embiid averaged 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Cavs when Mobley was available. However, Mobley has taken a step forward this season. He averages 15 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 1.4 BPG. Tonight's matchup with Embiid will be a major test in his development as a potential franchise cornerstone.
Final 76ers-Cavaliers Prediction & Pick
With both teams missing a significant portion of their lineups, it's hard to feel confident about either side. The under is much more appealing, however, given the defensive mentalities of both squads. Prepare for a barn burner.
Final 76ers-Cavaliers Prediction & Pick: Under 209.5 (-108)
