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The Philadelphia 76ers (5-6) face off against the Atlanta Hawks (7-4) on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a 76ers-Hawks prediction and pick.
The 76ers are 5-6 following their most recent win over the Suns on Monday. Philly has covered 45% of its games with 55% of the matchups going under. Atlanta has won three of its last four despite Wednesday night's loss to Utah. The 76ers won two of three meetings between the teams last season by 28 and two points, respectively. Atlanta managed to steal the finale by two. All three games between the teams went under Thursday's 222-point total.
Here are the 76ers-Hawks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: 76ers-Hawks Odds
Philadelphia 76ers: +1 (-118)
Atlanta Hawks: -1 (-104)
Over: 222 (-110)
Under: 222 (-110)
Why The 76ers Could Cover The Spread
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Despite their sub-.500 record, the Sixers have strong underlying metrics that support their ability to cover what is essentially a “pick 'em” tonight. They have shifted the identity of their team in the wake of star guard James Harden getting injured. Philly is sixth in scoring defense and has held opponents to the third-fewest 3s made per game. However, their poor offense and subpar rebounding have held them back in a big way. The 76ers are 24th in points per game and 25th in rebound differential.
Offensively, the 76ers got a massive boost with the return of center Joel Embiid on Monday. He scored 33 points and pulled down 10 rebounds in return from injury, propelling Philly to a key win over the Suns. This kind of performance is just par for the course when it comes to Embiid as the mammoth center has been dominant when healthy. For the season he has averaged 28.0 points and 9.6 rebounds while shooting over 50% from the field. The Hawks did slow him down in their matchups last season — limiting him to 23.3 points on under 40% shooting. That being said, he terrorized the Hawks in the playoffs the summer prior where he averaged 30.4 points and 12.7 rebounds in the seven-game series.
Getting Embiid back was huge for Philly, but he alone will not be able to carry the load in the absence of James Harden. That is where guard Tyrese Maxey comes in. Maxey has been the 76ers' most consistent force this season — leading the team in both minutes. In 38.1 minutes per game, Maxey has averaged 23.6 points and 46.5% shooting. He has been lethal from beyond the arc (41.8% from 3-point range). Maxey has flashed the ability to be a high-level distributor as well. He has four games already with at least six assists, which will undoubtedly go up as he adjusts to life without Harden.
Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
Atlanta has been the polar opposite of Philly this season. Whereas the 76ers have struggled on offense but have been rock solid on defense, the Hawks have no issues scoring but can't seem to slow anyone down. The Hawks are scoring the seventh-most points per game and making the most field goals per game. They also rank first in fewest turnovers per game. They have struggled defensively, however, as Atlanta is 20th in points allowed and hold a below-average rebounding ratio.
The Hawks are led by one of the best backcourts in the Eastern Conference in Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. The two dynamic guards have been an exceptional fit together, with both of them averaging over 20 points and eight assists. Young has remained the lead dog, averaging 27.6 points and 9.4 assists despite being ice-cold from beyond the arc. A career 35% 3-point shooter, Young is shooting just 31% from 3-point land and 37.8% overall — both numbers that will improve as the season progresses.
Murray has been phenomenal in his new role. After being the lead guard with San Antonio for his entire career, he has transitioned into more of an off-ball role, though he still possesses the ball a lot. Murray averages 22.6 points and 8.1 assists, but he has found ways to contribute without the ball in his hands as well. He averages 2.3 steals and 6.5 rebounds per game. The 76ers have been susceptible to opposing guard play and in the absence of James Harden, this is an area the Hawks have a clear advantage.
Final 76ers-Hawks Prediction & Pick
The 76ers are much improved with the return of Joel Embiid. Despite that, Atlanta has just been the better overall team thus far. They have a number of bodies to throw at Embiid to tire him out. Ultimately, the guard play for Atlanta is what gives them the advantage.
Final 76ers-Hawks Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Hawks -1 (-104)
