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The Atlanta Hawks (17-16) visit the Indiana Pacers (17-17) on Tuesday night. Action tips off at 7:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Hawks-Pacers prediction and pick.
Atlanta has won three of their last four games to bump them into seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks are 13-19-1 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone over the projected point total. Indiana has won two of their last three and is right behind the Hawks in eighth place in the East. The Pacers are 19-15 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone under. This will be the first of three meetings between the two teams this season. Atlanta won all four meetings between the teams last season.
Here are the Hawks-Pacers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Hawks-Pacers Odds
Atlanta Hawks: -1.5 (-110)
Indiana Pacers: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 238.5 (-110)
Under: 238.5 (-110)
Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
While Atlanta is on the road tonight, they haven't played since the 23rd whereas Indiana has to turn around quickly after their loss in New Orleans last night. That could end up being a critical advantage for the Hawks given their off-the-court drama surrounding Trae Young. Just half a game separates the two teams as this game has major implications for the Eastern Conference standings.
If there is a single reason for a Hawks cover tonight, it has to be their guard play. That starts with Trae Young who leads the team with 27.5 PPG and 9.9 APG. Young's efficiency is down this season, but he remains a constant threat from the outside thanks to his attempting over seven threes per game. Atlanta went 4-0 against Indiana last season, with Young leading the way. Trae terrorized the Pacers by averaging 32 PPG and 10.5 APG and shooting 54% from the field. He scored 30+ in three of the four matchups, including a 47-point outburst in which he hit seven threes. While Young can't be expected to drop 40 again tonight, his prior success against Indiana is certainly worth keeping in mind when making a Hawks-Pacers prediction.
While Young carried the way last year, he has some additional help this season in the form of Dejounte Murray. Murray has been a strong fit in the Atlanta backcourt as the combo guard can gel alongside anyone in the league. For the season, Murray averages 20.6 PPG and 6.2 APG. He remains a pest on defense as he is near the top of the league with 1.8 steals per game. While he missed some time due to an injury, the former Spur hasn't missed a beat upon his return. With Indiana's underwhelming defense keyed in on Young, Murray could find himself with ample opportunities to have a big night and propel his team to cover.
Why The Pacers Could Cover The Spread
Indiana has their work cut out for them tonight as they have to travel back home after a brutal loss to New Orleans last night. While the Pacers young guns struggled in the 20-point loss, it completed an otherwise-successful road trip during which they took down Boston and Miami. Things don't any easier tonight, however, as they match up with the seventh-seeded Hawks – a team they went 0-4 against last season. If there is hope in reversing last year's trend, it is it improvement of guard Tyrese Haliburton.
Haliburton has been long-appreciated by savvy fans going back to his draft-day slip, but he hadn't realized his true potential until this season. As the unquestioned leader of the Pacers, Haliburton has thrived and gives the Pacers a great chance to cover tonight as home underdogs. For the season, Haliburton averages 20.4 PPG and 10.3 APG while maintaining stellar shooting numbers. The 6'5″ point guard is shooting 48% from the field and 40% from three. He's also been a pest on defense where he averages 1.7 steals per game. As with many young players, his scoring is up-and-down. That being said, Haliburton has demonstrated the ability to will his team to underdog covers. In the last week, they picked up wins over Miami and Boston thanks to 33 and 43-point outings from Haliburton.
Atlanta's vulnerable defense will have a tough time defending Haliburton, but if there is an X-factor that could set this year's team apart from last year's, it's rookie Bennedict Mathurin. Despite coming off the bench, Mathurin ranks third on the team with 17.1 PPG. The talented scorer could pose a matchup nightmare for Atlanta given the multiple ways he can score.
Final Hawks-Pacers Prediction & Pick
Indiana is in a rough spot here as they have to make a quick turnaround after getting crushed in New Orleans last night. Given the back-to-back and their struggles in containing Trae Young last season, I like the Hawks to cover what is essentially a pick 'em.
Final Hawks-Pacers Prediction & Pick: Hawks -1.5 (-110)
