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The Miami Heat hope to get a win to potentially get out of the play in games, and in the process send the Detroit Pistons to a tenth straight loss. We continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Pistons prediction, pick, and how-to watch.
The Heat enters this matchup coming off a 129-122 win over the Dallas Mavericks as underdogs. A win will give them their 42nd of the year and clinch a winning season for Miami, and could potentially help them gain ground on the Brooklyn Nets for the six seed. The Pistons have not won since March 13th, losing nine straight since then. They have managed to cover the spread three times in those losses, but have only covered it once in their last seven games when double-digit underdogs.
Here are the Heat-Pistons NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Heat-Pistons Odds
Miami Heat: -12.5 (-110)
Detroit Pistons: +12.5 (-110)
Over: 220 (-110)
Under: 220 (-110)
How To Watch Heat vs. Pistons
TV: Bally Sun / Bally Detroit
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Article Continues Below
The Heat needed a win heading into their game against the Mavericks, as they had lost three straight games. They were able to get that win by scoring 20 points over their season average and shooting 52.3%. Jimmy Butler was the leader in that game, going for 35 points and 12 assists on the night. On the season it has been the defense that has led the way, only allowing 109.9 points per game on the season. Considering the Pistons are the third-worst-scoring team in the league, this may continue tonight.
Of concern for the Heat will be Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry. With the Heat still without Nikola Jovic, both of these two potentially being out is of major concern. Lowery is currently expected to play, but Adebayo is not. That is a major hit for this top-end defense. Not only does Bam contribute 20.7 points per game, but he also averaged 9.3 rebounds per game and 2.0 blocks+ steals per game. His missing the game hurts the Heat on both ends of the court.
On the note of scoring, the Heat need to find some scoring. The Heat is the worst-scoring team in the league and relies heavily on three guys to carry the load. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro all average over twenty points per game, which is 58.5% of their scoring load. With a third of that missing tonight, someone needs to step up. Lowry is an option, but he has not had a twenty-point game since December 2nd. Victor Oladipo is still on the roster, but he only has five 20-point games this season. Finally, there is Kevin Love, who just had his best game as a member of the Heat against Dallas. If one of them can step up tonight, they should cover with ease.
Why The Pistons Could Cover The Spread
This is a large spread in a game in which both teams struggle to score. The Heat is the worst in the NBA in scoring this year with the Pistons not far behind them. Either the Pistons will be a cure for the offensive woes of the Heat, or the Pistons will rise to the occasion, in the nine same losing streaks, they have only held one team under 110 points, and they have scored over 110 just twice. Long-losing streaks are also not abnormal for the Pistons. Before this nine-game losing streak, they had lost 11 straight, meaning they have lost 20 of 21 games.
If the Pistons are going to score, Jaden Ivey will have to lead the way. He is averaging 18.8 points in his last ten games, and 15.8 points per game on the season. In the highest scoring output by the Pistons in recent games, Ivey scored 32 points while shooting 47.4% from the field. Beyond Ivey, Killian Hayes has stepped up in recent games. He just had a 20 points outing against the Magic and has been in double digits in scoring in each of his last four games.
The Pistons will also need to make sure the Heat do not feast on second-chance points. That job will be on Jalen Duren. He has been inconsistent recently though. Since March 1st, he has had five games with double-digit rebounds but also had four games in which he had seven or fewer rebounds. If he can help control the glass, then the Pistons may be able to keep this one close.
Final Heat-Pistons Prediction & Pick
This will be the third and final match-up between the two teams, with the season series currently tied at one win a piece. The last time between these two teams, the Heat won 112-100, which would not cover the 12.5-point spread here. Both teams struggle on offense, but the Heat look to carry momentum from their win over the Mavericks into this game. They need a win here, and they will get one, as they cover with ease.
Final Heat-Pistons Prediction & Pick: Heat -12.5 (-110)
