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The New Orleans Pelicans (23-13) visit the Philadelphia 76ers (21-14) on Monday night. Action tips off at 7:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Pelicans-76ers prediction and pick.
New Orleans has won five of their six games to bump them into third place in the Western Conference. The Pelicans have covered 53% of their games while 58% 0f their games have gone over. Philadelphia has lost two of its last three games but still sits in fifth place in the Eastern Conference. The 76ers have covered 59% of their games while 54% of their games have gone over. This will be the second and final meeting between the two teams. The Pelicans took the first meeting last week in New Orleans: 127-116.
Here are the Pelicans-76ers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Pelicans-76ers Odds
New Orleans Pelicans: +3.5 (-106)
Philadelphia 76ers: -3.5 (-114)
Over: 228 (-110)
Under: 228 (-110)
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
New Orleans has a great chance to cover as road underdogs tonight thanks to their dynamic duo of Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum. The two combined for 78 of the team's 127 points in last week's win over Philadelphia. McCollum was especially breathtaking as he set the franchise record for threes by going 11-16 shots from beyond the arc. While Zion didn't set any records, his 36 points (13-19) in just 31 minutes was nearly as impressive.
The 76ers had no answer for the two as the NBA's top defense allowed 127 points in regulation for the first time all season. While it's unlikely McCollum repeats his record-breaking performance, his 19.8 PPG average supports another strong outing tonight. Zion, too, should be in for another big game. Averaging 26 PPG on 60% shooting, Williamson should have plenty of success against a 76ers team that had no answer for him last time out.
The biggest X-factor in whether New Orleans can keep things close on Monday is guard Trey Murphy. Murphy averages just 12.8 PPG for the season while jumping in and out of the starting lineup. He's a lethal shooter from beyond the arc, however, as he shoots 43% for the season on 5.5 attempts per game. He's been even better during their recent run of success. Across his last five games, Murphy has averaged 16.4 PPG while making three three-pointers per game at a 65% clip. Philadelphia holds opponents to the lowest three-point percentage in the league (33%) – putting even more importance on Murphy to continue his hot shooting.
If the Pelicans are going to cover on the road against one of the league's best home teams, they're going to need Jonas Valanciunas to have a better showing against star Joel Embiid. While no one expected the burly center to shut down Embiid, his 10 points(4-10) and nine rebounds were disappointing compared to Embiid's 37-point (14-22), eight-rebound performance. The 76ers aren't going to lose many games at home when Embiid puts up that kind of stat line. They're 5-1 at home when Embiid scores 35+ points – meaning Valanciunas will need to step up.
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Why The 76ers Could Cover The Spread
Despite dropping two of their last three games (including one to their opponent Monday), the 76ers remain in an excellent position to cover tonight in their return from a four-game road trip. Philly had been on fire prior to losing two in a row as they'd won eight in a row. The biggest catalyst in their success has been their defense. Allowing just 108.2 PPG, Philly is stout on the defensive side of the ball – especially at home. They've given up just 105.5 PPG at home en route to a 14-5 record in Philly. While their second-ranked defense was lit up by New Orleans' offense in their prior meeting, they're likely not to waste another strong Embiid outing at home.
For Philly, the play of the aforementioned Embiid is reason enough for a 76ers cover. Embiid has been incredible all season long as he continues to cement himself as one of the best players in the league. For the season, Embiid averages the second-most points in the league with 33.2 PPG. He's also chipped in 9.8 RPG and 1.7 blocks per game. The 7'0″ center torched New Orleans last week when he scored 37 points on 64% shooting. Coming off a triple-double against the Thunder, expect Embiid to continue his hot play of late. If he's able to replicate his prior performance tonight, the 76ers should be well-positioned to get revenge for last week's loss.
Final Pelicans-76ers Prediction & Pick
After a long road trip, I like the 76ers to take care of business at home.
Final Pelicans-76ers Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 (-114)
How To Watch
TV: Bally NO, NBCS Philadelphia
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 7:10 ET (4:10 PT)
