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The New Orleans Pelicans (18-8) visit the Utah Jazz (15-14) on Tuesday. Action tips off at 9:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Pelicans-Jazz prediction and pick.
New Orleans has won seven consecutive games to push them to first place in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are 15-11 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone over. Utah has lost two straight games to drop them ninth in the West. The Jazz are 16-13 against the spread while 52% of their games have gone over. This will be the second of three meetings between the teams this season. Utah took the first game 122-121 in New Orleans.
Here are the Pelicans-Jazz NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Pelicans-Jazz Odds
New Orleans Pelicans: -2 (-110)
Utah Jazz: +2 (-110)
Over: 232.5 (-110)
Under: 232.5 (-110)
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
Despite missing one of their best players for a large portion of the season, New Orleans has surged to the top of the Western Conference. The Pelicans may be the most well-rounded team in all of basketball as they have a top-ten offensive and defense. They rank third in scoring and fifth in offensive rating. Defensively, the Pelicans come in eighth in points allowed and third in defensive rating. They're just as dominant on the glass as well where they rank fourth in both rebound differential and rebound rate. Brandon Ingram remains out tonight but the Pelicans are expected to get Herb Jones back from an injury.
The Pelicans are playing better than anyone in the league right now. After winning seven consecutive games (including two straight over the Suns), New Orleans finds themselves with the third-best record in the league. Zion Williamson has been the catalyst for the Pelicans over this stretch. Zion has averaged 30 PPG, 9.1 RPG, and 5.3 APG while shooting 67% during New Orleans' seven-game win streak. He's also been a menace on defense, averaging 1.6 SPG and 1.1 BPG. Zion has flashed superstar potential his entire career but he's finally put it all together over this recent stretch of games. The Jazz are weak defensively, especially down low. That bodes well for Zion and in turn for the Pelicans' chances of covering.
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With Brandon Ingram continuing to miss games, New Orleans has evenly distributed the ball outside of Zion during their win streak. Over their last seven games, seven Pelicans have averaged at least 10 PPG (with Larry Nance's 9.7 PPG just missing the cut). Perhaps most crucial among those for tonight is that of guards Trey Murphy and Jose Alvarado. Both second-year players have really come into their own this season – especially on the offensive end. During New Orleans' winning streak they've combined for 5.3 made threes per game on 39% and 45% shooting, respectively. Their lethality from beyond the arc is worth keeping in mind when making a Pelicans-Jazz prediction.
Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
Utah has cooled off considerably after a blistering start to the season but they remain a potent offensive team. The Jazz rank fifth in scoring and fourth in offensive rating. They struggle on defense, however, ranking just 22nd in points allowed and 24th in defensive rating. Utah is an average team on the glass where they rank 15th in both rebound differential and rebound rate. The Jazz will be without guard Collin Sexton tonight due to injury.
Utah is led offensively by skilled forward Lauri Markkanen. Lauri is in the midst of a career year averaging 22.2 PPG and 8.5 RPG. He's shot an eye-popping 53% from the field and 41% from beyond the arc (on 6.4 attempts per game). He's coming off four consecutive 20-point games and most recently shot 4-6 from three in their loss to the Trail Blazers. Lauri is far and away the biggest reason Utah could cover the spread because we've already seen his strong play translate to team success. Markkanen scored 31 points on 53% shooting and pulled down 12 rebounds in their opening-night victory of New Orleans. His recent stretch and previous success against the Pelicans are worth keeping in mind before making a Pelicans-Jazz prediction.
An underrated factor in Utah's potential to cover tonight is the return of point guard Mike Conley. Although Conley isn't the same player he used to be, he remains a skilled disturber and floor general. He's also a pesky defender – something Utah lacked during his multi-week hiatus. He returned to the floor in their loss to Minnesota on Friday when he scored 17 points and dished out six assists.
Final Pelicans-Jazz Prediction & Pick
The Pelicans are firing on all cylinders right now and I don't expect a vulnerable Jazz defense to slow them down. Fire up the road favorites!
Final Pelicans-Jazz Prediction & Pick: New Orleans Pelicans -2 (-110)
