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The Toronto Raptors (13-18) visit the New York Knicks (18-13) on Wednesday night. Action tips off at 7:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Raptors-Knicks prediction and pick.
Toronto has lost six straight games to drop them to 10th place in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are 15-16 against the spread while 52% of their games have gone over. New York has won eight consecutive games to bump them to sixth in the East. The Knicks are 17-12-2 against the spread while 57% of their games have gone under. This will be the first of four meetings between the division foes. Last season, the Raptors took three of four meetings against the Knicks.
Here are the Raptors-Knicks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Raptors-Knicks Odds
Toronto Raptors: +1.5 (-110)
New York Knicks: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 217.5 (-112)
Under: 217.5 (-18)
Why The Raptors Could Cover The Spread
Toronto can't seem to do anything right lately but their underlying metrics suggest a turnaround is imminent. The Raptors' biggest issue lies on the offensive end where they rank 22nd in scoring and 15th in offensive rating. Toronto is strong defensively, however, ranking eighth in points allowed and 11th in defensive rating. They are similarly impressive on the glass as they rank 10th in rebound differential and 11th in rebound rate. The Raptors will continue to be without Precious Achiuwa and Otto Porter Jr. while Gary Trent Jr. is listed as questionable.
In a matchup between two teams headed in seemingly opposite directions, the Raptors will need their best players to show up on the offensive end of the court. That starts first and foremost with Pascal Siakam. Siakam has been very good this season despite his team's lack of success. The lengthy forward averages 25 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 6.8 APG. Siakam is an efficient scorer as he shoots 48% from the field, 35% from three, and 77% from the free throw line. He's been the singular constant in an otherwise inconsistent season from Toronto and will need to continue to play well tonight if the Raptors want to cover a narrow road spread.
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While Siakam has been incredibly consistent, guard Fred VanVleet has been remarkably up-and-down. The combo guard hasn't found his footing yet in this NBA season despite averaging 18.7 PPG and 6.2 APG. His biggest problem has been efficiency. VanVleet is shooting just 38% from the field and 32% from three. While he's been able to keep his turnovers low (1.9 TO per game), his lack of scoring has really hurt Toronto. He did put together back-to-back 39-point games last week but is coming off a nine-point outing in their most recent game where he shot 3-15 from the field. VanVleet has to be better if Toronto wants to cover tonight but is in a tough spot against New York's stingy perimeter defense.
Why The Knicks Could Cover The Spread
New York has completely flipped a switch over the last two weeks and now finds themselves firmly in contention to make the playoffs in the East. The Knicks are a strong all-around team, ranking 12th in scoring and 11th in offensive rating. Coach Thibodeau's defense has been elite all year as the Knicks rank 11th in points allowed and seventh in defensive rating. Their biggest strength comes on the glass where they rank sixth in both rebound differential and rebound rate. New York notably listed guard Quentin Grimes as doubtful tonight due to a right ankle injury.
New York has been firing on all cylinders in recent games and needs to continue their style of play if they want to cover tonight. The two-man game of Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle has been particularly effective and is something they'll likely rely heavily on tonight. Brunson has been a godsend for the Knicks this season as he's finally provided New York with stability at the point guard position. Brunson averages 20.8 PPG on 47% shooting as well as 6.2 APG. He's been incredibly impressive as a scorer during their recent win streak, scoring 30 points twice in their last four games and shooting 50% in four of their last five games.
Forward Julius Randle continues to be one of the most consistent players in the league as the forward provides New York with a high ceiling on a night-to-night basis. For the season, Randle averages a team-high 22.3 PPG and 9.2 RPG while shooting 45% from the field. He's been even better across their recent win streak, averaging 25.3 PPG and 11.5 RPG in their last eight games.
Final Raptors-Knicks Prediction & Pick
I don't understand this line given how well New York has played recently and how poorly Toronto has played. Hammer the Knicks as slight home favorites after they just blew out the similarly-faltering Warriors.
Final Raptors-Knicks Prediction & Pick: New York Knicks -1.5 (-110)
