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The Houston Rockets (2-9) face the Toronto Raptors (6-5) on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Rockets-Raptors prediction and pick.
Houston is just 2-9 this season but is coming off a win against Orlando. The Rockets have covered 50% of their games, while six of their 11 games have gone over. Toronto sits at 6-5 following Monday's loss to Chicago. The Raptors have covered 73% of their games with 55% of them going under.
Toronto took both matchups between the teams last season by 19 and two-point margins. Both matchups went over tonight's 225.5-point total.
Here are the Rockets-Raptors NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Rockets-Raptors Odds
Houston Rockets: +9.5 (-110)
Toronto Raptors: -9.5 (-110)
Over: 225 (-110)
Under: 225 (-110)
Why The Rockets Could Cover The Spread
Houston has predictably been one of the worst teams in the league this season as they continue to rebuild. The Rockets rank 21st in points per game and have the league's 25th most efficient offense. It doesn't get much better on the defensive end as they rank 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency.
If the Rockets are going to cover against the Raptors, it will be because of their two guards. Jalen Green (20.8 PPG) and Kevin Porter Jr. (19.5 PPG) are the leading scorers for a Houston team with loads of young talent. Both players have the ability to explode on any given night – with Green in particular being someone to look out for. The second-year pro is coming off his best game of the season in Monday's win over the Magic. In the victory, Green scored 34 points on 12-18 shooting.
That isn't to say that Porter Jr. doesn't have the ability to fill up the box score. He's deferred more in the scoring department to Green this year, but KPJ has still found ways to contribute. In addition to his near-20 points per game, Porter Jr. averages 6.5 rebounds and 5.6 assists. Last time out he flirted with a triple-double – amassing 17 points, 11 assists, and eight rebounds.
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Outside of their two guards, the Rockets have one of the league's most hidden gems in center Alperen Sengun. The second-year pro has taken a huge leap in his first year as a full-time starter. On the season, Sengun averages 17.1 points and 9.9 rebounds in addition to nearly a steal and block per game. The skilled big man is raw but has really turned things around of late – scoring 26, 17, and 20 points in his last three games.
Why The Raptors Could Cover The Spread
Toronto may sit just a game-above .500 but the underlying numbers tell the story of a team primed for a breakout. The Raptors have an elite defense which is fourth in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. They're nearly as good on offense where they are 16th in points per game and ninth in offensive efficiency. It's only a matter of time before this experienced team starts to get things rolling.
The Raptors will be without their leader in points, rebounds, and assists as forward Pascal Siakam nurses an injury. Rest assured, however, Toronto is a deep squad with a number of capable playmakers to take his place.
Toronto has four players averaging between 14 and 19 points per game. Leading the charge is point guard Fred VanVleet. VanVleet started the season slowly but has really picked up the slack in Siakam's absence. For the season, VanVleet averages 17.1 points and 7.6 assists per game. He's struggled shooting the ball to the tune of a 39.5% field goal percentage but has gotten back on track of late. In his last two games, VanVleet has scored 30 and 27 points, respectively. He's shot 11-23 from three over that span while dishing out 15 assists.
While VanVleet has been impressive of late, the Raptors will need a bounce-back game from forward Scottie Barnes if they want to cover. Barnes struggled in their most recent out against the Bulls. He shot just 2-9 from the field and scored five points. Given his track record, however, a strong rebound is surely in store. Barnes averages 14.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, and five assists per game while shooting 46.7% from the field. Barnes is a gifted playmaker but will presumably be asked to step up more in the scoring department in Siakam's absence. A matchup with Houston's porous defense could be just what Barnes needs to get back on track.
Final Rockets-Raptors Prediction & Pick
Given Toronto's recent struggles and the absence of their best overall player, I like Houston to keep things close tonight. The Raptors' defense should keep it close, but given the strong recent play of Houston's guards, they're a good ‘dog to back.
Final Rockets-Raptors Prediction & Pick: Houston Rockets +9.5 (-110)
