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The Minnesota Timberwolves (16-17) visit the Miami Heat (16-17) on Monday night. Action tips off at 7:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Timberwolves-Heat prediction and pick.
Minnesota has lost two straight prior to tonight's game to drop them to 10th place in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves are 13-20 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone under. Miami has also lost two straight but resides in ninth place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 10-21-2 against the spread while 52% of their games have gone under. This will be the second and final meeting between the two teams this season. The Timberwolves took a 105-101 victory in Minnesota back in November.
Here are the Timberwolves-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Timberwolves-Heat Odds
Minnesota Timberwolves: +2 (-110)
Miami Heat: -2 (-110)
Over: 221.5 (-110)
Under: 221.5 (-110)
Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
Article Continues Below
Minnesota continues to be one of the most inconsistent teams on a night-to-night basis but is in a good position to cover as road underdogs against a team they've already beaten this year. The Timberwolves feature a solid offense that ranks 11th in scoring and 17th in offensive rating. They've been up-and-down on defense with ranks of 22nd in points allowed and 15th in defensive rating. The Wolves have really struggled on the glass, ranking 23rd in rebound differential and 25th in rebound rate. Minnesota will continue to be without big man Karl-Anthony Towns, while forward Kyle Anderson is questionable.
Despite the continued absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota is in a great position to cover against a banged-up Miami team thanks to their advantage down low. With Bam Adebayo expected to miss tonight's game, Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert should be able to feast against an undermanned frontline. Despite some limitations to his overall game, Gobert has been a force this season. He averages 14 PPG, 12.3 RPG, and 1.2 BPG while shooting 66% from the field. He's taken on a much larger responsibility in the wake of KAT's injury, however, as he's upped his scoring and rebounding to 16.6 PPG and 14.7 RPG across his last seven games. Matched up with one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, Gobert should be in for a big night – something to consider before making a Timberwolves-Heat prediction.
The biggest reason Minnesota can cover the spread tonight is the continued growth of star Anthony Edwards. ANT has stepped up in a big way since Towns went out, averaging 24.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 5.7 APG across the last 12 games. Edwards has been red-hot the last week as he's scored at least 23 points in each of their last four games. Miami has a strong defense, but Edwards has the talent to perform well regardless of the opponent. If he does, they should be in a great position to cover as Minnesota is 7-4 this season when Edwards scores at least 27 points.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami has lost three consecutive home games but still sits in a good position to cover tonight. The Heat struggle on offense, ranking just 29th in scoring and 26th in offensive rating. Miami is a strong defensive team that ranks fourth in points allowed and eighth in defensive rating. They don't do themselves any favors on the glass where they rank 25th in rebound differential and 24th in rebound rate. The Heat will notably be without center Bam Adebayo, while forward Jimmy Butler is questionable.
Miami may be missing their star big man tonight, but they still have a good shot to cover the spread thanks to their trio of talented guards. All three of Kyle Lowry (14.3 PPG and 5.9 APG), Tyler Herro (21.4 PPG and 4.2 APG), and Max Strus (12.9 PPG) are capable scorers and playmakers. Herro in particular has been lights out from beyond the arc, shooting 41% from three. Lowry and Strus are not slouches from deep either as both players drain over two three-pointers per game. Between the three of them, they attempt over 23 threes per game. That constant barrage of outside shots can be tough for opposing defenses to deal with. They have a great matchup against a Minnesota defense that gives up the most threes per game and allows opponents to shoot the fifth-highest percentage against them.
Herro in particular has been potent as of late and gives them a great chance to cover even if Butler is ruled out. Herro has averaged 28.8 PPG on 49% shooting from the field over his last five games. Additionally, he's made an average of 6.2 threes per game at a 48% clip over that span. Minnesota's perimeter defense is weak – setting Herro up for another hot shooting night.
Final Timberwolves-Heat Prediction & Pick
Even with Miami missing key guys, I like their guards to take advantage of a lackluster Minnesota defense.
Final Timberwolves-Heat Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat -2 (-110)
