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The Golden State Warriors will face the Denver Nuggets to continue their first-round matchup on Thursday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Warriors-Nuggets prediction and pick.
This series has been one of the most one-sided matchups of the postseason so far. The Warriors dominated in both of their matchups on their home court, winning the first two games by a combined 36 points. Rising star Jordan Poole has been fantastic, and Golden State's supporting cast has played downright elite basketball. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have struggled mightily on both ends of the floor. This is a must-win game for Denver, as going down 3-0 is essentially the same as losing the series. Expect this game to be far more competitive than the last two.
Here are the Warriors-Nuggets NBA playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Warriors-Nuggets Odds
Golden State Warriors: -2.5 (-108)
Denver Nuggets: +2.5 (-112)
Over: 223 (-110)
Under: 223 (-110)
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Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
The Warriors have shown that they are capable of dominating this matchup. Their performance on the defensive end of the floor has been particularly impressive. They have held the Nuggets to less than 110 points in each matchup while doing a great job on potential MVP center Nikola Jokic. Jokic is yet to score 30 points in a game in this series, and he's looked extremely uncomfortable at times because of Golden State's harassing defense. Jokic was the only Nugget to score more than 20 points in game two, highlighting just how good this Golden State defense has been.
The offense that the Warriors have put on display has also been incredible. They've scored more than 120 points in both games, largely thanks to Poole and shooting guard Klay Thompson. The combination of Stephen Curry, Poole, and Thompson has proven itself to be nearly unstoppable. The Warriors have shot over 40% from three-point range in both contests while shooting 53% from two throughout this series. Denver clearly doesn't have a defensive answer for this team, and that isn't going to change in this contest.
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
Denver's offense has to come alive at some point. They were fantastic throughout the regular season, shooting 48% from the field on elite effective field goal percentages and shooting efficiency numbers. The Nuggets are shooting 44% in this series, a major downgrade from their typical numbers. Every single player not named Nikola Jokic has struggled to score efficiently, essentially crippling any chances the Nuggets have at offensive success. However, that should change in this game. It's impossible for a team to go this cold for a long stretch, especially a team as offensively gifted as the Nuggets.
The Nuggets should be very grateful they get to return home for this matchup. Denver was equally good at home and on the road this year, but the Warriors were significantly worse when they played on the road. Golden State earned a 31-10 record at home and a 22-19 record anywhere else, one of the biggest discrepancies in the NBA. The crowd played a major part in each of Golden State's first two wins, but the Nuggets won't have to deal with that in this contest.
Final Warriors-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
This spread is too small to pick anything but the Warriors to cover. Golden State is coming off of back-to-back blowout wins, and while this game will be somewhat close, the Warriors should win and cover fairly easily.
Final Warriors-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Golden State Warriors: -2.5 (-108)
