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The NBA season is officially underway and the second week slate carries on with an Eastern Conference showdown between the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat. Our NBA odds series continues with a Nets-Heat prediction and pick.
After losing back-to-back games to begin the season, the Brooklyn Nets finally broke through with a massive 12-point win over the Charlotte Hornets. Leading the charge was third-year man Cam Thomas. His 33-point night was the fuel this team needed to tally a season-high 133 points. Failing to score more than 120 points in their first two games was very surprising for this team, given how well they have been performing offensively. So, it seemed like it was only a matter of time before this offense got going, and now that they have their first win under their belt, they are ready for more.
The defending Eastern Conference Champion Miami Heat have not had the start to the season they had hoped for. They squeaked out a one-point opening night win over the Detroit Pistons and have lost three in a row since. Their most recent loss came at the hands of the team they beat in the postseason a season ago: the Milwaukee Bucks. Although Tyler Herro went off for a remarkable 35-point performance, the team could not keep up with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. Now, the Heat enter this game desperate to get a win to avoid their first four-game losing streak since February of last season.
Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Nets-Heat Odds
Brooklyn Nets: +6.5 (-112)
Miami Heat: -6.5 (-108)
Over: 223 (-110)
Under: 223 (-110)
How to Watch Nets vs. Heat
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
TV: Brooklyn- YES Network, Miami- Bally Sports Sun
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Nets Could Cover The Spread
There has been no greater surprise in the NBA this season than the lights-out play coming from Cam Thomas. He is currently averaging the fourth most points per game in the league at 33.0 and has not scored fewer than 30 points in any of the games he's played. The most impressive aspect of his scoring has been the efficiency with which he has done it. On 19.0 attempts per game, he has not had a field goal percentage lower than 58.8%. Moreover, he is the only player in the top nine players with the most points per game to average fewer than two three-pointers made per game. How he can attack the basket and shoot the mid-range has been phenomenal so far. Look for him to continue this streak against a banged-up Heat backcourt.
Efficiency on offense does not pertain only to Thomas. This team has been one of the better offensive teams in the league despite their 1-2 record. They rank fourth in the league in offensive rating with a 119.2. This is because they pick their shots wisely. Brooklyn posts the second-best true shooting percentage with 62.5% and the third-best effective field goal percentage in the league with 59.7%. With key defenders scattered throughout the Heat's injury report, look for the Nets to take advantage in a big way.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
The Championship run hangover for the Miami Heat has been real this season. Not much has gone their way. However, one of the lone bright spots for this team has been their ball security. The Heat are averaging the fourth fewest turnovers per game in the league, with only 12.3 per contest. Additionally, they have not committed more than 14 turnovers in any of their games. This effort has been led by Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, and Jimmy Butler. Each of these three players averages more than 3.6 assists per game, and all hold an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 2.0. Smart decisions on offense to maintain possessions will be critical as Brooklyn has proved they can score as well as anyone in the league.
Looking at the matchups, Miami will look to expose a depleted Brooklyn team. Currently, Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Dennis Smith Jr. will not play in this game. Between the four, this will account for 34.3 points, 16.7 rebounds, and 13.0 assists. Key players like this being out of the lineup can be very difficult to recover from. Although Miami has injury concerns of their own, their deep bench will be a key advantage in this one.
Final Nets-Heat Prediction & Pick
Unfortunately, injuries are a major problem for both teams coming into this one. As previously mentioned, Johnson, Claxton, Dinwiddie, and Smith Jr. will not play for the Nets. On the opposing sideline for the Miami Heat, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin, and Haywood Highsmith are all listed on the injury report. Going on the next-man-up mentality, it will be anyone's game. With that being said, I am going to go with the team with a deeper bench and more proven coaching. I will be taking the Miami Heat, who are at home in a must-win spot to avoid their first 1-4 start or worse since the 2007-08 season. Give me Miami.
Final Nets-Heat Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat -6.5 (-108)
