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The New York Islanders are not having plenty of success in the 2022-23 NHL season, but they can at least go 2-0 in their head-t0-head matchup versus the Toronto Maple Leafs with a win this Monday night. Will the Islanders get the better of Toronto again? Or will the Maple Leafs get back at New York? With all that being said, let’s now take a look at our NHL odds series plus our Islanders-Maple Leafs prediction for this showdown scheduled at 7:00 PM ET.
Here are the Islanders-Maple Leafs NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NHL Odds: Islanders -Maple Leafs Odds
New York Islanders: +1.5 (-132)
Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+108)
Over: 6.0 (-105)
Under: 6.0 (-115)
How To Watch Islanders -Maple Leafs
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 ET/4:00 PT
*Watch NHL games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Islanders Could Cover The Spread
It’s been a rough 2023 so far for the Isles. After losing to the Carolina Hurricanes last Saturday at home, 5-2, the Islanders saw their losing skid extend to four games. Two of those losses were handed to them after overtime, so at least New York got some points through that horrid stretch. A putrid offense has been a problem for the Islanders this season and it’s further magnified of late. They have scored just 13 goals in their last eight game for an average of 1.6 per contest.
New York isn’t helping itself create more scoring opportunities by losing the possession battle having posted just an even-strength 48.1 CF% in those eight outings though it also recorded a 95.2 PDO which could mean that the Islanders could be due for a positive regression. That could come starting later tonight versus the Maple Leafs, who are nursing several hurting bodies in the blue-line. At the moment, the Maple Leafs have five defensemen on the injured reserve, including TJ Brodie.
The Islanders have also defeated Toronto once already this season, scoring a 3-2 overtime win on the road last November. New York posted just an even-strength 44.1 CF% in that contest but their three goals were good enough of a buffer for netminder Ilya Sorokin. The 27-year-old Sorokin is a bright spot for the Islanders this season, as he’s solid in front of the net more often than not. On the season, Sorokin has a 15-15-4 record to go with a 2.37 GA/G – seventh best in the NHL.
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Among goalies this season with at least 20 starts, Sorokin is second overall with a 0.696 goals above expected per 60 minutes and second as well with a 23.8 goals above expected. He’s been doing a heroic job between the pipes for the Islanders, who have allowed the fifth-fewest 5-on-5 goals allowed so far in the 2022-23 NHL regular season. In the first meeting with the Maple Leafs, Sorokin turned away 30 of the 32 shots he faced.
The Islanders have won all of their last four games following an outing in which they allowed at least five goals.
Why The Maple Leafs Could Cover The Spread
The Maple Leafs have some very bitter tasty in the mouth to shake off after losing to the Montreal Canadiens on the road over the weekend via overtime, 3-2. That loss doused cold water on Toronto’s dreams to stretch an ongoing win streak to three games, as the Maple Leafs were coming off victories against the Florida Panthers (5-4 OT) and the Winnipeg Jets (4-1) both at home prior to meeting Montreal.
But at least Toronto will be playing back home for this upcoming matchup versus the wobbling Islanders. Now just seems like the perfect time for any team to catch New York, given the Islanders’ recent form. And while the Islanders are pretty banged-up on defense, they still have the firepower to compensate for a thin blue-line. Toronto is currently ninth in the NHL this season with 3.36 goals per game and 10th with a 10.6 shooting percentage.
Auston Matthews is still a machine on offense. He was not able to score a goal against Montreal, but Matthews has found the back of the net six times and has recorded four assists over the last 10 Maple Leafs games. William Nylander, meanwhile, has scored five goals and assisted six times over the same stretch. Matthews and Nylander along with Michael Bunting are going to be problems for Sorokin and the Islanders’ defense which got a bit lucky in the first meeting.
Toronto had an expected goals for of 3.23 in that game, while the Isles only had a 2.237 xGF. In addition to that, the Maple Leafs posted a 68.42 percent high-danger scoring chances rate to just 31.58 HDCF% for New York. With John Tavares and Mitch Marner on the second line, the Maple Leafs should be able to keep the pressure on the Isles’ defense from beginning to end just like they did in the first meeting and hope that their effort and talent will rightfully translate to goals. Tavares and Marner have combined for eight goals and 17 assists in the last 10 Toronto outings.
As for their goalie situation, the Maple Leafs, who are 11-4 in their last 15 games versus a team with a losing record, could have their best netminder on the ice tonight unlike in the first meeting with the Islanders. When they lost to New York, Erik Kallgren was the one who patrolled the crease, Ilya Samsonov could get the call in the rematch against the Isles. On the season, Samsonov is 14-4-2 with a 2.22 GA/G which is second-best in the league. He is also seventh overall with a .919 saves percentage.
Final Islanders-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick
Look for the Maple Leafs to be relentless on the attack again in this game just like in the first meeting with New York – except this time, Toronto will have more success. Taking the Maple Leafs to cover the puck line.
Final Islanders-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+108)
