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Ole Miss and Auburn are set for a key SEC West showdown in Week 8 at Jordan-Hare Stadium. We continue our college football odds series with an Ole Miss-Auburn prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Rebels exit the bye week with a lot of momentum having won two straight conference games. Lane Kiffin's team is still in the mix in the SEC West title race, though Alabama is a game in front and holds the tiebreaker against Ole Miss after the Week 4 victory.
Meanwhile, the Tigers will try to snap a three-game losing streak in SEC play. The biggest storyline entering the game is Hugh Freeze facing his former team for the first time as Auburn's head coach.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Ole Miss-Auburn Odds
Ole Miss: -6.5 (-115)
Auburn: +6.5 (-105)
Over: 55.5 (-105)
Under: 55.5 (-115)
How to Watch Ole Miss vs. Auburn Week 8
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/4:00 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Ole Miss Will Cover The Spread
Ole Miss ranks eighth in college football in averaging 41.7 points per game. Auburn is 76th at 27.7 points per game. The Rebels have scored 27 or more points in five of their six games this season, while the Tigers have hit that mark just twice in six games…and that was against 3-4 Samford and 1-7 UMass. It really could be as simple as that as to how Ole Miss covers the spread with ease in this game.
To go a bit further, Auburn's defense is coming off of a game where it allowed 563 total yards and 48 points against LSU. Sure, Jayden Daniels and company have the third-best scoring offense (45.3 PPG), but this Ole Miss unit is not far behind. Jaxson Dart has been slightly better than Daniels in yards per completion (15.3 to 15.1, eighth nationally) and sixth nationally with 9.8 yards per attempt. That could be a problem for a defense that's allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.2 percent of their throws (94th) or 7.2 yards per attempt (65th).
Of course, the Rebels aren't just a one-trick pony on offense. Let's also not forget about running back Quinshon Judkins, who was the leading returning rusher in the SEC entering the season. He's only ninth in rushing yards (73.8 YPG), but he's turned it on in the previous two games: 33 carries for 177 yards and two total touchdowns against LSU, and 18 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown against Arkansas. There are so many ways this Ole Miss team can score points, and that's an intimidating thought for an opponent like Auburn who doesn't have that same luxury.
On defense, Ole Miss ranks sixth in the nation in sacks per game (3.7), and Auburn is allowing 2.7 per game (102nd). That's another area that the Rebels could dominate.
Why Auburn Will Cover The Spread
Well, for starters, the Tigers did cover the 14-point spread against back-to-back national champions Georgia several weeks ago. There's no doubting the fact that Auburn has been brutal away from home, but it's playing its best football on its own field. Freeze can use that to his advantage when getting his new team hyped up against his former team.
Here's another reason the Tigers could make this a game: Their defense is forcing a lot of mistakes. Auburn has notched 11 turnovers through six games (33rd nationally), including seven interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Ole Miss has been fantastic at limiting turnovers this season (2nd nationally with only three), but the Tigers' opportunistic tendencies could make it a chore to come out of this game without a giveaway. That would also make it easier on the Auburn offense, which would love having a shorter field to work with since its strength is the running game.
Speaking of that, the Tigers rank in the top 30 in both rushing attempts per game (40.2) and rushing yards per game (192.2). Just like it was against Georgia, ball control will be essential to limiting the opportunities on offense for Ole Miss. If Auburn can do that, it can certainly cover the touchdown spread by grinding the game to a halt and keeping the ball out of Dart and Judkins' hands.
Final Ole Miss-Auburn Prediction & Pick
Auburn had a shot against Georgia because it got off to a good start by notching a 10-0 lead in the first quarter. It was the opposite in trailing 17-0 in the blowout loss at LSU. Playing from behind is not an option for the Tigers in this game, and that could be the problem since Ole Miss ranks second nationally with first-quarter points per game. The Rebels are the better bet.
Final Ole Miss-Auburn Prediction & Pick: Ole Miss -6.5 (-115)
