Aaron Nola takes to the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies as they host the San Diego Padres. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Phillies prediction and pick.

Padres-Phillies Projected Starters 

Michael King vs. Aaron Nola

Michael King (5-4) with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP

Last Start: King continued his solid month in his last start. He went five innings, giving up just four hits and two walks. He struck out 12 while giving up two runs, but did not factor into the decision. It was the fourth straight start of giving up two or fewer runs while going at least five innings.

2024 Road Splits: King has been solid on the road this year. He has made seven starts,  with eight total appearances. He is 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .221 against him at home.

Aaron Nola (8-3) with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.

Last Start: Nola enters the game with his worst performance of the year. He went just 3.2 innings, giving up eight hits and two walks with a home run. It would result in scoring eight runs and Nola taking his third loss of the year.

2024 Home Splits: Nole has been solid at home this year. He is 4-2 in eight starts with a 3.44 ERA and an opponent batting average of .210. Still, home runs have been an issue at home, as Nolas has given up eight home runs this year.

Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Padres-Phillies Odds

San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-164)

Moneyline: +126

Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+136

Moneyline: -148

Over: 8.5 (-112)

Under: 8.5 (-108)

How to Watch Padres vs. Phillies

Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT

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Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Padres sit tenth in the majors in runs scored this year, while sitting first in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, and 12th in slugging. Jurickson Proctor continues to be great this year. He is hitting .321 with a .422 on-base percentage, both the best on the team. He has ten home runs this year, with a team-leading 46 RBIs. Profar has also scored 41 times this year. Meanwhile, Jake Cronenworth also continues to produce. He is hitting .257 on the year with a .326 on-base percentage. He has 16 doubles, two triples, and 10 home runs, leasing to 45 RBIs and 30 runs scored. Leading the team in runs scored this year, is Fernando Tatis Jr. Tastis is hitting .272 this year, with 13 home runs to lead the team. He has 35 RBIs and scored 48 times on the year.

In the last week, it has been Jackson Merrill who is swinging the hot bt. He is hitting .381 in the last week with four home runs. He has six RBIs and five runs scored. While not hitting well, Donovan Solano is slugging well. He has just three hits in the last week, but two of them are home runs.

Current members of the Padres have 103 career at-bats against Nola. They have hit .252 against him with two home runs and five RIBs. One of the home runs belongs to Jake Cronenworth, but he is just two for 13 against Nola with a double, a home run, and three RBIs.  Luis Arraez also has some success isn't Nola? He is three for 12 with a double and a triple.

Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Phillies are fourth in the majors in runs scored, while sitting sixth in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, and seventh in slugging. Alec Bohm is driving in a ton of runs this year. He is hitting .302 on the year, with 26 doubles and six home runs. Bohm has 57 RBIs and 32 runs scored. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper continues to slug well. HE is hitting .280 on the year with a .390 on-base percentage. He has 15 home runs and  46 RBIs while scoring 41 times. Leading the team in runs scored is Kyle Schwarber. He is hitting .248 on the year with 14 home runs and 43 RBIs. Schwarber also leads the team with 50 runs scored this year.

In the last week, Schwarber has been on fire. He is hitting .375 in the last week with two doubles and three home runs. He has seven RBIs and five runs scored in the week as well. Alec Bohm is also hitting well. He is hitting .429 in the last week and has driven in six runs. Rounding out the hot bats is Bryce Harper. Harper is hitting .429 in the last week, with just one RBI, but five runs scored.

Current members of the Phillies have 29 career at-bats against Michael King. They are hitting .345 off him with two home runs and four RBIs. Both home runs come from Bryson Stott. He is three for three against King with two home runs and four RIBs. Further, both Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm at two for four against King.

Final Padres-Phillies Prediction & Pick

The Padres struggled over the weekend, losing all three games to the Mets. While they have a solid offense they are not at the same level as the Phillies. As long as Aaron Nola bounces back from his rough start, the Phillies should get the win.

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Final Padres-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies ML  (-148)