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We have a new NL Rookie sensation in Paul Skenes. The former LSU star pitcher has been great in the five starts he has appeared in. How many strikeouts will he get? He has the makings of a young ace and the odds on how many strikeouts he might get this season reflect that. He has already met the massive expectations that were on him coming out of college as the top overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. He has all the physical tools that make any team want him, standing at 6'6″ and weighing 235 pounds as a giant on the mound.
Paul Skenes is not completely set in the Pirates lineup. He did not start playing and seeing time on the mound until early May. He made an instant impact in his first start, striking out seven Cubs in a Pirates win. Skenes made an instant impact and it left Pirates fans and baseball fans in general stunned. So far, he has a 3-0 record, a 3.00 ERA, and 1.00 WHIP. When someone can get seven strikeouts in their MLB debut there is something special there. It got us thinking about how many strikeouts he can get this season. FanDuel has odds for over 150, over 175, and over 200 strikeouts.
MLB Odds: Paul Skenes Regular Season Strikeouts
150+ Strikeouts (+100)
175+ Strikeouts (+250)
200+ Strikeouts (+800)
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Why Paul Skenes Will Hit Over 150 Strikeouts (+100)
This is the most likely option for Skenes because he did not play for the first month and a half. His first start came on May 11, 2024, when he had seven strikeouts in four innings. It was the first of four starts in May and he had 30 strikeouts alone when the Pirates went 3-1. Skenes has started every six days since the 11th. ESPN had his initial projection being 13 starts and in those starts they projected he would hit 99 strikeouts. He is on his way to shatter those expectations. If he keeps his normal pace so far, he should hit over 150 strikeouts easily, while he already has 38 through five appearances up to this point. He should blow past this pace and cement his rookie season as one of the best the MLB has ever seen for a pitcher.
Why Paul Skenes Will Hit Over 175 Strikeouts (+250)
This feels like the most realistic pace and the likely number he should be able to hit. He is a rookie sensation and this number might put him on fringe Cy Young watch, but it is warranted after the five starts we have seen. In four of the five starts, he has hit a minimum of seven strikeouts with the highest being 11 in one game against the Cubs. He currently has an absurd K/BB ratio of 6.3. This pace is also predicated on Skenes jumping some players on the pitching depth chart. That most likely jump will come with Martin Perez where he has been more inconsistent than Skenes. Their lineup has been hit with injuries and Perez is on the IL currently, but if all of them were healthy, Skenes should get the nod. He does not have the experience yet, but he is having a better season than their other quality pitchers like Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, and Bailey Falter.
Why Paul Skenes Will Hit Over 200 Strikeouts (+800)
This pace is going to be very hard to hit. It is Cy Young range and while Skenes has so much talent and is bound to win at least one Cy Young, it feels too early to start anointing him as one of the best pitchers in the league, but he is on his way. The talent is undeniable and it is easy to see him getting here soon, maybe next year, but this number is too high. Another factor holding him back is the amount of time he did not see the diamond, from the start in April, through May 11th. The two Cy Young winners last season, Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole, each had 234 strikeouts and 222 strikeouts respectively. Skenes is on his way, but it's too early for these numbers.
Final Paul Skenes Regular Season Strikeout Prediction
My prediction is that Skenes hits around 180 strikeouts and shocks the baseball world with how easy he has made it look during the long season. There is no way to ignore all the talent he has and because of that the Pirates are going to turn to him more in the lineup and he might become their new ace pretty quickly.
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Final Paul Skenes Regular Season Strikeout Prediction: 175+ Strikeouts (+250)
