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We're in for a banger in the Co-Main Event of PFL 1 and the 2023 Regular Season opening card. Reigning Light Heavyweight (205 lb) 2022 Champion Rob Wilkinson will be taking on former UFC title challenger Thiago Santos in a fight you won't want to miss. Check out our PFL odds series for our Wilkinson-Santos prediction and pick.
Rob Wilkinson is 17-2 in his professional fighting career and has gone a perfect 4-0 in PFL since joining the promotion last year. He won the 2022 PFL Light Heavyweight Championship and will be coming in as a force to be reckon with this season. His last loss came to Israel Adesanya in 2018. Since, he's won nine fights in a row. Wilkinson stands 6'3″ with an 80-inch reach.
Thiago Santos is 22-11 in his long mixed martial arts career and will be making his PFL debut after spending almost a decade in the UFC. He's fought a who's-who of UFC competition and challenged for the title against Jon Jones. At 1-5 in his last six UFC fight, Santos will make the jump to PFL as he looks for his first championship belt. Thiago Santos stands 6'2″ with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the PFL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
PFL 1 Odds: Rob Wilkinson-Thiago Santos Odds
Rob Wilkinson: -190
Thiago Santos: +148
How to Watch Rob Wilkinson vs. Thiago Santos
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN App, fuboTV
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET/ 6:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Rob Wilkinson Will Win
Rob Wilkinson has made a huge impact since joining the PFL. He has yet to lose and took the promotion by storm in the way he tore through the Light Heavyweight division. Wilkinson has a ton of power in his hands and will throw everything into his shots. While he swings wildly, he does so in a controlled manner and can land his power punches with great accuracy. He tends to take a shot when coming in, but Wilkinson has displayed a tremendous chin and is a tough opponent to drop with punches.
Wilkinson is very good at controlling the center of the octagon and getting his opponent on their back foot. From there, Wilkinson explodes with big flurries of punches and can put his opponents away in a hurry. He has good cardio but can wear towards the end of the fight if there's a lot of wrestling exchanges. To win this fight, Wilkinson will want to keep Santos on his back foot and keep his output high. He'll have youth on his side as he tries to use his athleticism against the 39-year old Santos.
Why Thiago Santos Will Win
Thiago Santos will have experience on his side as he brings his illustrious UFC resume into the PFL. He has legendary kickboxing skills and has lights-out power in his hands. He's one of the faster strikers we've seen at 205 and has put hands on some of the UFC's greatest light heavyweights. He has heavy leg kicks and throws 100% in every shot throughout the entire fight. He has great takedown defense and always gives himself a chance if he can keep the fight standing.
The biggest question for Santos, of course, will be his age. At 39 years old and almost 10 years competing in the UFC, he's put a ton of miles on his body and has seen himself get knocked out brutally a number of times. His last six fights in the UFC were uncharacteristic and have shown that he's not the fighter he once was. Still, he'll be working with a massive advantage with the experience in the competition he's faced and will look to have a hot start to his PFL career.
Final Rob Wilkinson-Thiago Santos Prediction & Pick
Rob Wilkinson will have the advantage of youth on his side and will be the more energetic fighter in this one. Both him and Santos have a very similar style and will walk forward slowly while throwing massive bombs. At 39 years old, the chin is a huge question for Santos and he won't be as quick as he used to be in the striking. Wilkinson is the real deal, but he hasn't really faced a ton of great competition during his stint. While this may be a risky pick, we'll take Santos as the underdog just on the count of his UFC experience. If Wilkinson can handle him easily, it'd be very telling for where Santos is at in his career.
Final Rob Wilkinson-Thiago Santos Prediction & Pick: Thiago Santos (+148)
