Subscribe
Follow Us
The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to complete the sweep Thursday night against the Tampa Bay Rays. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Rays prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Phillies-Rays Projected Starters
Jesus Luzardo vs. Ryan Pepiot
Jesus Luzardo (3-0) with a 1.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 41.2 innings pitched, 11 walks, 47 strikeouts, .241 oBA
Last Start: vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: No Decision, 5.1 innings pitched, 9 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts
Away Splits: 3 starts, 1.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17.0 innings pitched, 6 walks, 22 strikeouts, .219 oBA
Ryan Pepiot (2-4) with a 4.23 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 38.1 innings pitched, 14 walks, 35 strikeouts, .265 oBA
Last Start: at New York Yankees: Loss, 4.1 innings pitched, 5 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout
Home Splits: 5 starts, 4.82 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 28.0 innings pitched, 10 walks, 31 strikeouts, .278 oBA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Rays Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+126)
Moneyline: -134
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-152)
Moneyline: +114
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
How to Watch Phillies vs. Rays
Article Continues Below
Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05 PM PT
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, FanDuel Sports Network Sun
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies have dominated the first two games of this series. They won game one 8-4 and they pitched a shutout in game two en route to a seven-run win. The Phillies have 24 hits in the two games, 15 runs scored, four home runs, and four stolen bases. They have been dominant at the plate, and there is a great chance for that to continue Thursday night. Pepiot has allowed opponents to hit the ball pretty well off him this season, so the Phillies have a great chance to have another great offensive game.
Jesus Luzardo has been the best acquisition of the offseason. He has an ERA below 2.00 and he does a good job limiting hits. Luzardo is in the 80th percentile or better in xERA, fastball velocity, chase percentage, and whiff percentage. He attacks the zone, and he has kept hitters off balance all season. If the Phillies get another good start out of Luzardo, they will complete the sweep Thursday night.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
Tampa Bay has Pepiot on the mound, and he has been pitching better lately. In his last two starts, Pepiot has allowed three earned runs in 10.1 innings pitched, and he has allowed eight hits. Now, he has not been a strikeout pitcher in either game, but he has done a good job keeping hitters off balance. His chase percentage this season is above average, so he should be able to get the Phillies to get themselves out a few times. If Tampa Bay gets a good start out of Pepiot, they will be able to avoid being swept.
Tampa Bay needs to take advantage of Philadelphia's lack of offense on the road. When playing away from home, the Phillies are scoring just 4.12 runs per game. That is a decent amount of runs, but it is more than one full run less than what they score at home (5.47 runs per game). If the Rays are going to win this game, it is going to be on the mound. If Tampa Bay can keep the Phillies to four runs or less, they will be able to win this game.
Final Phillies-Rays Prediction & Pick
The Phillies have the better pitcher on the mound, and it is very hard to bet against him. I will be taking the Phillies to win this game.
Final Phillies-Rays Prediction & Pick: Phillies ML (-134)
