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It is an NL East showdown as the Philadelphia Phillies face the Miami Marlins. It is now time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Marlins prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Phillies come into the game after sweeping the Rays earlier this week. They have now won eight of their last ten. In the process, the Phillies have overtaken the Giants for the last wild-card spot and sit at 47-39 on the season. Still, they are 11 games back of the Braves in the division.
Meanwhile, the Marlins come in after taking three of four from the Cardinals. They had been dominating on offense in the series, scoring 30 runs in the first three games, but Jack Flaherty shut them out yesterday to hand the Marlins the loss. While dealing with a long list of injuries, the Marlins have managed to win six of their last ten games. They are 8.5 games back of the Braves in the division but have the lead in the wild-card race, sitting in the top spot at 51-38 on the season.
Here are the Phillies-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Marlins Odds
Philadelphia Phillies:-1.5 (+136)
Miami Marlins: +1..5 (-164)
Over: 7 (-120)
Under: 7 (-102)
How To Watch Phillies vs. Marlins
TV: NBCSP/BSFL
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies were dominant in their series with the Rays, and it was the pitching that did it for them. They allowed just six runs in the series against one of the best offensive units in the league. This is a pitching staff that has been a little above average on the season, sitting 13th in the majors in team ERA, while eighth in quality starts and opponent batting average, and fifth in WHIP.
They should get some quality pitching today as they send Zack Wheeler to the mound in this one. He is 7-4 on the season with a 4.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. His last two starts have not been great though. Last time out it was five innings and four runs against him, but he got the win. The time before that was 5.1 innings of work with five runs against. Wheeler has not lost a start since May 22nd, as he has been getting plenty of run support. In his last five starts, the Phillies have scored 47 runs in those games.
Hoping to keep giving run support will be Alec Bohm. Bohm has been on fire in the last week. He has been hitting .435 in the last week with a .500 OBP. Bohm has hit two doubles and two home runs while driving in nine runs. He has also stolen a base and scored four times. Joining him in driving in runs Nick Castellanos. While he is hitting just .259 in the last week, he does have three home runs and two doubles. This has led to him driving in six runs and scoring four times. Like Bohm, Castellanos also has a stolen base in the last week.
The hottest bats on the team may belong to Bryson Stott and Bryce Harper. Stott is hitting .450 over the last week, with three triples and two RBIs. He has two stolen bases and four runs scored as well. Meanwhile, Harper is hitting .400 with three RBIs and three doubles. He has scored five times in the last week as well.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins offense had started to pick back up. Last weekend against the Braves, they managed to score just seven runs in three games, while being swept. Then, in the first three games of the series with the Cardinals, they scored 30 runs. The Marlins were then shut out in the last game of the series. On the season, they are tied for 22nd in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 14th in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging. They do have the third-best team batting average though.
That is helped heavily by Luis Arraez. Arraez is first in the majors with a .388 batting average. For Arraez to get his batting average back over .400 before the All-Star break, he would need to have a great series. He would need to go at least nine for 12 at the plate to make it there. The last time someone had a batting average over .400 at the break was Nomar Garciaparra in 2000. Arraez is hitting .345 in the last week though, so he may be heating up to make a run at .400.
It has been Jesus Sanchez as of late driving in a lot of runs. He has been hitting .400 over the last week with two home runs and a double. He has also driven in eight runs in the last week. Joining him in driving in runs is Garrett Cooper. Cooper has six RBIs in the last week while hitting .269. He also has a home run and a double, scoring three times as well.
Jorge Soler is also picking up a little. He is hitting .346 in the last week with a home run and three RBIs. Soler is tied for sixth in the majors with 22 home runs on the season. Soler has also scored eight runs in the last week. He was fairly solid throughout June as well. He hit .238 on the month while driving in 12 and hitting five home runs.
The Marlins send Sandy Alcantara to the mound today in this one. He is 3-7 on the season with a 4.93 ERA. Last time out, he went just five innings giving up four runs with two home runs in a loss. While Alcantara has been giving up a fair amount of runs over the last month, the Marlins are still winning. He has given up four or more runs in four of his last six starts. Still, the Marlins have won two of those games and four of his last six starts.
Final Phillies-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The pitching edge is hit one is heavily in favor of the Phillies. Even more so, some players on this Phillies roster have hit historically well against Alcantara. One of those is Trea Turner. Turner has a hit in 10 of his last 12 games, and eight of his last ten games on the road. He is a lifetime .400 batter against Alcantara as well. The Phillies will score a fair amount of runs in this game, and the Marlins offense has been heavily unpredictable. Do not expect much against Wheeler as the Phillies get the win.
Final Phillies-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+136)
