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Two teams looking to improve from a rough 2024 season face off as the Pittsburgh Pirates face the Miami Marlins. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Marlins prediction and pick.
The Pittsburgh Pirates were 76-86 last year, which places them in fifth in the NL Central last year. It was a difficult year last year for the Pirates, but there is hope for the future. Paul Skenes is projected to have another great year, and contend for the Cy Young for the Pirates this year. Meanwhile, the Marlins were 62-100 last year, last place in the NL East. Still, the Marlins did not make many moves in the offseason, and the Marlins considered making a practice squad for the upcoming season.
Here are the Pirates-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Marlins Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+126)
Moneyline: -148
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-152)
Moneyline: +126
Over: 6.5 (115)
Under: 6.5 (-105)
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Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The top of the order for the Pirates will be led by new addition Tommy Pham. Pham went time with the White Sox, Cardinals, and Royals last year. Between the three teams last year, he hit .248 with a .305 on-base percentage and .368 slugging. Further, he drove in 39 runs while scoring 49 runs last year between the three teams. Behind him will be Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds was solid last year, leading the team in WAR while hitting .275 with a .344 on-base percentage. Further, he hit 24 home runs last year while driving in 88 runs.
Oneil Cruz and Andrew McCutchen will hold down the middle of the order for the Pirates. Cruz hit .259 last year with a .324 on-base percentage and a .449 slugging percentage last year. He also hit 21 home runs, and drove in 76 runs, while also scoring 72 times last year. McCutchen continues to produce, even as his career winds down. Last year he hit .232 with a .328 on-base percentage and a .411 slugging in his 120 games last year. He also hit 20 home runs and drove in 50 runs last season. Finally, Joey Bart returns for the Pirates behind the plate. Bart played in just 80 games last year, hitting 13 home runs and driving in 45 runs.
Paul Skenes will be on the mound for the Pirates in this game. Skenes won the NL Rookie of the Year, was an All-Star, finished third in Cy Young voting, and was 19th in MVP voting last year. He was 11-3 last year with a 1.96 ERA last year. Skenes faced the Marlins once last year, going six innings and giving up just one run while striking out nine and taking the win.
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The top of the Marlins lineup is led by Xavier Edwards. Edwards played in just 70 games last year but hit .328 with a .397 on-base percentage in that time. He also slugged .423 last year. Further, Edwards drove in 26 runs, scored 39 runs, and stole 31 bases in his 70 games last year. Derek Hill is expected to hit in the two-hole behind Edwards. Hill played in just 32 games last year, hitting .234 with a .259 on-base percentage. Hill drove in 18 runs and hit four home runs last year.
Matt Mervis is expected to start at first base for the Marlins in this one. He has spent time in the Cubs minor league system the last few years and played in 36 games with the major league club in the last two seasons. In that time he has hit just .155 with three home runs and 14 RBIs. The top returning bat for the Marlins will be Jonah Bride. Bride played in just 71 games last year but did hit .276 with a .357 on-base percentage and a .461 slugging percentage. He also hit 11 home runs and 39 RBIs last year.
Sandy Alcantara is expected to be on the mound for the Marlins in this one. Alcantara missed all of last year after Tommy John surgery, but the 2022 Cy Young winner has been solid in the spring. Alcantara made five starts in Spring Training, pitching 37 innings. He gave up nine hits and three walks while striking out ten. Further, he did not give up an earned run.
Final Pirates-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The odds in this MLB game favor the Pittsburgh Pirates. A major reason is Paul Skenes on the mound. He was dominant last year and looks to improve in his second season. Further, the Pirates have a much better lineup with much more experience. Meanwhile, the Marlins do have a stellar pitcher going in Sandy Alcantara. Still, with this being his first start in a regular season game in over a year, he may be on an innings limit. That will lead to the Marlins bullpen coming into the game, which is not strong. That will be the difference in this one.
Final Pirates-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Pirates ML (-148 )
