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Basketball immortality and a national title are all on the line, as Purdue faces UConn, both with the hopes of cutting down the nets on Monday night. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Purdue-UConn prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Purdue entered the tournament as a one-seed in the Midwest Region. In the first weekend, they were dominant, beating 16-seed Grambling and then eight-seed Utah State. The biggest test would come the next week. First, they faced the fifth seed Gonzaga. It was a tight game early in the second half, but Purdue took off from there, winning the game 80-68. Next was two seed Tennessee. That was a one-point game with just 3:41 left. Tennessee would fail to score for nearly two minutes, and Purdue held on to win 72-66. The last time 0ut was their Final four game with NC State. Purdue led from start to finish in that one, winning 63-50.
Meanwhile, UConn was the one seed in the East Region. They also have shown dominance in the tournament. The first weekend saw a 39-point win over Stetson before a 17-point win over Northwestern. They would then top the five-seeded San Diego State by 30, before beating a three-seed Illinois. They would beat Illinois by 25. Facing Alabama in the final four was one of their closer games. It was a four-pint lead for UConn at the half, and a tie game with 12:44 left in the second half. UConn took off from there, winning 86-72
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Purdue-UConnOdds
Purdue: +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +220
UConn: -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -275
Over: 145.5 (-115)
Under: 145.5 (-105)
How to Watch March Madness
Time: 9:20 PM ET/ 6:20 PM PT
TV: TBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Purdue Will Cover The Spread/Win
Purdue is number two in the nation in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings, sitting third in adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Further, Purdue is 12th in the nation in points per game while sitting 12th in assists to turnover ratio this year. They are also 13th in the nation in effective field goal percentage this year. Zach Edey has led them on offense.
Edey comes into the game with 24.9 points per game this year. That is good for the most in the nation this year, while his shooting percentage of 62.5 percent is 16th in the nation. has been great in the tournament. He scored 20 points last time out, which is the lowest he had scored in the tournament. He has scored 20 or more points in each game while having 12 or more rebounds in each game. Meanwhile, Braden Smith comes in with 12.0 points per game this year, while also having 7.5 assists per game on the year. Lance Jones has also been solid this year, he comes into the game with 11.9 points per game.
Purdue has also been solid in the rebounding game, sitting sixth in the nation in rebounds per game. Further, they are ninth in defensive rounds per game as well, while sitting third in offensive rebounding percentage. Edey and Smith lead the way there too. Edey is averaging 12.2 rebounds per game this year, third in the nation. Meanwhile, Braden Smith has 5.9 rebounds per game this year.
On defense, Purdue is 71st in points against per game this year but they are 37th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Once again, the story on defense is Edey and Smith. Edey comes in with 2.2 blocks per game this year. Meanwhile, Smith has 1.6 steals per game on the season. Further, Lance Jones also has 1.3 steals per game this year.
Why UConn Will Cover The Spread/Win
UConn comes in ranked first in KenPom's adjusted ratings this year. This year, they are first in adjusted offensive efficiency and sitting fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are 17th in the nation in points per game this year while sitting seventh in the nation in effective field goal percentage. UConn has been a great shooting team inside the arc, sitting fourth in the nation in two-point field goal percentage this year.
UConn has been led by the combination of Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban, and Tristen Newton this year. Newton leads the way this year with 14.9 points per game this year. He is shooting the worst of the group though, shooing just 41.3 percent. He does lead the team in assists, coming in with 6.2 per game. Spencer comes in with 14.4 points per game this year. He is shooting 48.6 percent from the field. Finally, Karaban has 13.5 points per game this year, while also shooting 49.9 percent from the field.
UConn sits 23rd in the nation in rebounds per game, but they are 11th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage while sitting 33rd in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage this year. This is led by Donovan Cligan, who comes in with 7.4 rebounds per game. He also has over two offensive rebounds per game this year. Meanwhile, Tristen Newton comes in with 6.6 rebounds per game this year, while being great on the defensive end. UConn also has three other players with over 4.5 rebounds per game this year.
On defense, UConn is sixth in the nation in points against per game this year. They sit third in opponent effective field goal percentage this year as well. UConn forces people into the middle, where one of their big men often causes difficult shots this year. They are eighth in the nation in blocks this year and sixth in block percentage this year. Clingan leads the way here with 2.5 blocks per game this year, while Samson Johnson adds .9 blocks per game. Further, Cam Spencer has 1.5 steals per game this year.
Final Purdue-UConn Prediction & Pick
While Purdue has the best player on the court and has been solid all year, the best team in UConn. UConn has been the most dominant team in the tournament. They have players, such as Donovan Cligan and Tristen Newton who can contend inside with Zach Edey. They also have the better defense overall. While both teams are solid on offense, the difference in this Purdue-UConn National Championship is the UConn defense, leading to the prediction that UConn will in big in this one.
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Final Purdue-UConn Prediction & Pick: UCONN -6.5 (-110)
