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The Texas Rangers and Philadelphia Phillies begin a three-game set with this game on Tuesday evening. The Rangers are in the middle of a small World Series hangover, as they are just 24-24 to start the season. The Phillies are doing much better on their quest to avenge last season's NLCS defeat, leading the National League East with a 34-14 record. The Rangers are 1.5 games back of the Mariners for first in the American League West, while the Phillies hold a 5.5-game lead on the Braves. These teams haven't played each other too often before the new schedule rules, but the Rangers have won ten consecutive games dating back to 2017. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Rangers-Phillies prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
It'll be a good pitching matchup as the Rangers send Jon Gray to the mound. Gray allowed two or fewer runs in every game except one this season. Gray allowed five earned runs in a tough first outing of the season but has been nearly flawless in the nine starts since then. The Rangers haven't been able to capitalize on those starts. Gray is just 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA.
It isn't easy to find one, but the Phillies have a pitcher going to the hill who has been even better than Gray this season. The early front-runner for the National League Cy Young, Ranger Suarez, is 8-0 with a 1.37 ERA, boasting two consecutive scoreless outings to total five on the season. The Phillies have won every one of Suarez's starts. Suarez has always been a groundball pitcher with tons of control. It's evident this season, as he's allowed just four home runs over 59 innings.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rangers-Phillies Odds
Texas Rangers: +1.5 (-162)
Moneyline: +136
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+134)
Moneyline: -162
Over: 8.5 (+100)
Under: 8.5 (-122)
How to Watch Rangers vs. Phillies
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Rangers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rangers have won four of their last five games when Jon Gray starts. It's easy to see why since he has just five earned runs over those five games. The issue for Gray is that he'll have to go deep into this game to put the Rangers into a position to win since the Texas bullpen has a 6.22 ERA over their last three games.
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
It's not a very difficult line of thinking to bet the Phillies in this game. Philadephia doesn't lose when Ranger Suarez takes the mound, boasting a 9-0 record and covering the run line in every game except the opener. When a team is getting pitching performances like Suarez, it's hard to lose. Suarez has given up three earned runs in a game twice, with five shutouts included to give him a 1.37 ERA.
The Phillies offense has been twice as good as the Rangers over their last ten games. They averaged 6.4 runs/nine over that span, with a .346 on-base percentage. The Rangers only averaged 3.2 runs/nine over their last ten games. Texas has been even worse over their past five games, batting just .188. Those numbers wouldn't get it done against most pitchers in the MLB, but it looks even worse with their matchup against Ranger Suarez.
Final Rangers-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The run line is offering us tremendous value in this matchup. Ranger Suarez has helped the Phillies cover the run line in eight of his last nine starts, and they are undefeated in his games this year. The only blemish on the run line is a 5-4 win over the Braves in his first start. Jon Gray could trouble the Phillies, but their bullpen has been terrible, so expect Philadelphia to pull away.
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Final Rangers-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+134)
