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Buehler and Allen face off in Game 3 in Boston! This is the second of a doubleheader between the two teams on Saturday due to a makeup. The Red Sox have struggled to find much consistency this season, while the Guardians are playing well coming into this series. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Guardians prediction and pick.
Red Sox-Guardians Projected Starters
Walker Buehler vs. Logan Allen
Walker Buehler (3-1) with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed one run on four hits with three walks and nine strikeouts through seven innings.
Away Splits: (1-1) 5.79 ERA
Logan Allen (1-1) with a 2.11 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed one run on five hits with one walk and five strikeouts through 5.2 innings.
Home Splits: (0-0) 0.00 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Guardians Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+168)
Moneyline: +100
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-205)
Moneyline: -118
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
How to Watch Red Sox vs. Guardians
Time: 6:10 pm ET/3:10 pm PT
TV: NESN/CLEG
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Red Sox had the epitome of a mediocre season last year, finishing with an 81-81 record. They are 14-13 this season to start the year, but they are 2-3 in their last five games. Statistically, the Red Sox were great on offense last season and have carried it over into this year, playing very well. Then, the pitching has been average and has not changed much from last season to this season. Alex Bregman, Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Kristian Campbell, Trevor Story, Cedanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu have held the fort for this elite offense. Tanner Houck, Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Richard Fitts are the biggest standouts in this pitching lineup. They need consistency, and this series would be a great starting area.
The Red Sox are starting Buehler on the mound. He has a 3-1 record, a 4.23 ERA, and a 19 WHIP. He has allowed 13 runs on 25 hits with eight walks and 26 strikeouts through 27.2 innings across his five starts this season. His K/BB ratio is also at 3.3. The Red Sox are also 4-1 in his five starts this season. Buehler has been a solid pitcher for Boston, which is a favorable matchup for him in this game. The Guardians have been unimpressive on offense, so that Buehler can take advantage in this game.
The Red Sox's offense was great last year and has been solid this season. They were sixth in team batting average at .252, and this season, they are 12th in team batting average at .244. Bregman and Story have stood out most on this offense. Bregman leads in batting average at .320, in RBI at 21, in OBP at .393, and in total hits with 33. Finally, Story leads in home runs with five. Boston's offense has depth and should find some offense against Allen, but it won't be easy in a giant X-factor matchup.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians were one of the best teams in the MLB last season and finished with a 92-69 record. They are 14-10 this season and have won five of their last six games. Their bats were underwhelming the previous season and have still struggled this year. They had one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB last year, and they have started this year playing solidly as well. Brayan Rocchio, Carlos Santana, Lane Thomas (out with an injury), Bo Naylor, Kyle Manzardo, Jose Ramirez, and Steven Kwan have been key to their offense this year. Tanner Bibee is the best pitcher on the roster, but Logan Allen and Gavin Williams have also been solid. The Guardians have potential and have looked very good in this series against the Orioles.
The Guardians are starting Allen on the mound. He has a 1-1 record, a 2.11 ERA, and a 1.31 WHIP. He has allowed six runs on 18 hits with 10 walks and 16 strikeouts through 21.1 innings across his four starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of 1.6. The Guardians are also 3-1 in their four starts. Allen has been great for the Guardians on the mound, and he should be a great matchup against the Boston offense. This is an X-factor coming into this matchup.
The Guardians have talent behind the plate on offense, even after the offseason. They were 19th in team batting average at .222 and are at .235 this year. Kwan and Manzardo have been the best players on the offense. Kwan leads in batting average at .337, in OBP at .394, and in total hits with 32. Then, Manzardo leads in home runs with seven and RBI with 18. The Guardians have depth and balance across this lineup, which can cause massive issues for Buehler on the mound for Boston.
Final Red Sox-Guardians Prediction & Pick
I think this game is a toss-up. The Guardians have the slight pitching advantage with Allen and have the offense that's playing better. The Guardians cover, but the Red Sox might still win outright.
Final Red Sox-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-205)
