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The Red Sox make the trip to Miami to face the Marlins! The Red Sox have played well recently after struggling with consistency, while the Marlins are one of the worst teams in the MLB. Neither team has much momentum leading into this matchup. Our MLB odds series has our Red Sox-Marlins prediction, odds, and pick for Wednesday.
Red Sox-Marlins Projected Starters
Brayan Bello vs. Trevor Rogers
Brayan Bello (7-5) with a 5.55 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched 2.1 innings and gave up seven runs on five hits with three walks and two strikeouts in a Red Sox loss.
2024 Road Splits: (5-2) 5.10 ERA
Trevor Rogers (1-8) with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched six innings and gave up three runs on six hits with four walks and four strikeouts in a Marlins win.
2024 Home Splits: (0-4) 5.00 ERA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Marlins Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+125)
Moneyline: -132
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-150)
Moneyline: +112
Over: 8 (-112)
Under: 8 (-108)
How to Watch Red Sox vs. Marlins
Time: 6:40 pm ET
Article Continues Below
TV: NESN / Bally Sports Florida
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Red Sox have been average for the most part this season, but are playing much better recently. They have a 44-39 record and just won a game to break a three-game losing streak. Statistically, the Red Sox are seventh in offense and eighth in pitching. Tyler O'Neill, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Rafael Devers are all talented players and have been solid to a varying degree behind the plate so far this season. Regarding their pitching, Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, and Garrett Whitlock despite his current injury have made up a great pitching staff.
The Red Sox are starting Brayan Bello on the mound where he has a 7-5 record, a 5.55 ERA, and a 1.47 WHIP. He has allowed 47 runs on 76 hits with 29 walks and 64 strikeouts through 71.1 total innings this season. In the 14 games he has started this year, the Red Sox are 8-6. Bello has been the weak link in a strong pitching staff in Boston. However, it might not matter based on how much the Marlins have struggled behind the plate.
The Red Sox's offense is playing great. They are seventh in team batting average at .252 after finishing last season at .258. The offense is led by Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran in most batting categories behind the plate. Devers leads in home runs at 18, in RBI at 45, and in OBP at .368. Then, Duran leads in batting average at .288 and total hits at 99. This offense is playing great as a unit and gets a favorable matchup against Trevor Rogers on the mound for the Marlins.
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Marlins are one of the worst teams in the MLB and currently have a 30-54 record. Their bats and pitching have both struggled across the board and are a big reason why they have struggled as a whole. Bryan De la Cruz, Jake Burger, Josh Bell, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have stood out despite their offensive struggles. Ryan Weathers has been a standout player on the mound for a struggling pitching staff. Not much has gone right for the Marlins this year and they have struggled.
The Marlins are starting Trevor Rogers on the mound where he has a 1-8 record, a 4.87 ERA, and a 1.56 WHIP. Through 81.1 innings, he has allowed 48 runs on 91 hits with 36 walks and 64 strikeouts. Rogers has started in 16 games for the Marlins and they have gone 3-13 in those starts. He has struggled on the mound and has not had the team to back him up either. He is going to struggle in this matchup against a red-hot offense like the Red Sox behind the plate.
The Marlins' offense has struggled this season as a whole. They are 23rd in team batting average at .231 after finishing last season at .259. The offense is led by Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Bryan De La Cruz. Chisholm Jr. leads in batting average at .259 and in OBP at .324. Then, De La Cruz leads in home runs at 15, in RBI at 40, and in total hits at 80. As much as this offense has struggled, they get a matchup against Bello on the mound for Boston and he has struggled, so it favors them overall.
Final Red Sox-Marlins Prediction & Pick
This game comes down to which offense can create a spark. Neither pitcher has much of an advantage between Rogers and Bello for the Red Sox and Marlins. The Red Sox have a distinct advantage against the Marlins behind the plate. The offense will be the difference for the Red Sox and why they should win and cover even on the road.
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Final Red Sox-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
