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The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays finish their three-game series today. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Rays prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Red Sox took game one of the series, grabbing only their second win of the season over the Rays. In the game, Triston Casas homered and drove in four runs to give the Red Sox the win. In the second game of the series, the Rays struck back. They took an early 3-0 lead and led 5-2 in the fifth inning. The Red Sox would score in the sixth and seventh through to tie the game. It would go to extra innings, and in the 11th an infield single by Luis Urias would score a run for the Red Sox and give them the lead. In the bottom of the inning, Brandon Lowe would hit a walk-off three-run home run to win the game for the Rays.
With the loss, the Red Sox are now 72-67, which placed them five games behind the Blue Jays for the last Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Rays are 84-55 and have a 7.5-game lead over the Rangers, who are the first team out of the playoffs.
Here are the Red Sox-Rays MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Rays Odds
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-154)
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+128)
Over: 8 (-106)
Under: 8 (-114)
How To Watch Red Sox vs. Rays
TV: NESN/BSSUN
Stream: MLB.TV/ESPN+
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The offense has been solid in the last four games. They have scored 29 runs in the last four games, going 3-1 in those games. On the year the Red Sox sat seventh in the majors in runs scored while sitting third in batting average, seventh in on-base percentage, and sixth in slugging. Triston Casas may have the hottest bat on the team. In the last week, he has hit .435 with a .500 on-base percentage. He has two doubles and two home runs, leading to seven RBIs in the last six games. Casas has also scored six times in the last week as well.
Meanwhile, Ceddanne Rafaela has hit .385 in the last week for the Red Sox. His only extra-base hit is a double, and he has just one RBI, but he has scored three times. Masatka Yoshida has also scored two times and driven in six runs in the last week. He is doing it while hitting .278 with a .316 on-base percentage. He had two home runs and a double leading to hose six RBIs.
As a team, the Red Sox have an expected runs created of 26.0 runs in the last week and have scored 35 times. They have also been hitting and slugging fairly well. They are hitting .239 but with a .408 slugging. The Red Sox have 22 extra-base hits in the last week out of 52 total hits.
Inconsistent pitching has been the major issue for the Red Sox as of late. It struck them again last night. On the season, the Red Sox are 21st in team ERA, while sitting 20th in WHIP and 25th in opponent batting average. On the hill today will be Nick Pivetta. He is 9-6 on the ear with a 4.49 ERA. He is used both as a reliever and a starter. In his last two starts, the Red Sox won both games, as he gave up six runs in 9.1 innings of work.
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
The Rays have one of the best offensive units in the majors. They are fourth in the majors in runs scored while sitting eighth in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage, and fourth in slugging. Isaac Paredes leads the team in home runs and RBIs this year. He is tied for 21st in the league in home runs while sitting tied for 17th in RBIs. Paredes has struggled some in September so far. He is hitting just .118 once a month but does have two RBIs.
Brandon Lowe was the hero last night and has been having a good week. In the last week, he had seven RBIs with the help of a home run. He is hitting .273 with a .393 on-base percentage. Lowe has also stolen a base and scored four times in the last week. Meanwhile, Rene Pinto has made an impact in limited at-bats. In the last five games, he is hitting .500 with two home runs and a double. That has led to five RBIs and two runs scored for Pinto.
While Randy Arozarena is not hitting very well, he and Josh Lowe are causing issues on the base path. Arozarena is hitting just .176 in the last week and has driven in four runs, but he has stolen three bases. Josh Lowe is hitting .250 and has an RBI, but he has also stolen three bases. The Rays are not hitting as well as they were as of late. They are hitting just .211 in the last week, with a .300 on-base percentage. The Rays are making the most of opportunities though. They have scored 28 times on an expected run score of just 22.4.
The Rays are sending Tyler Glasnow to the mound today. He is 7-5 on the season with a 3.17 ERA. He has been solid over his last four starts. In the four starts his ERA is just above 3.00 as he has been up 11 runs, nine earned, in 25 innings of work. In that time, the Rays have gone 2-2, as has Glasnow.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick
In the pitching match-up today, there is not a major edge on either side, but Glasnow has been better as of late and will go deeper into the game. Still, the Red Sox have been hitting better as of late. The Rays are still one of the best offenses overall, but the Red Sox are playing like the better offense. It took a major comeback last night for the Rays to get the win. That will not happen as easily today. The Red Sox have a middle-of-the-pack bullpen, and with their bad showing yesterday, they should rebound today.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick: Red Sox +1.5 (-154)
