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The MLB season continues as the Reds look to pick up the win on the road in Houston when they take on the Astros in game one of their series on Friday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Astros prediction and pick.
Reds-Astros Projected Starters
Nick Martinez vs. Hunter Brown
Nick Martinez – (1-3) with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP
Last Start: Martinez allowed a run on four hits and no walks while striking out six over six innings Sunday against the Nationals. He did not factor into the decision.
2025 Road Splits: Martinez has had a rough time on the road, where he is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.38 WHIP across 16 innings.
Hunter Brown – (5-1) with a 1.67 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP
Last Start: Holmes took the loss Friday against the Dodgers after allowing two runs on four hits and two walks in six innings. He struck out nine.
2025 Home Splits: Brown has pitched great at home, where he is 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.77 WHIP across 13 innings.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Astros Odds
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-144)
Moneyline: +150
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+120)
Moneyline: -178
Over: 7.5 (-125)
Under: 7.5 (+102)
How To Watch Reds vs. Astros
Article Continues Below
Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10 PM PT
TV: MLB Extra Innings, MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Reds Will Cover The Spread/Win
Nick Martinez and the Reds are poised to outduel Hunter Brown and the Astros on Friday, thanks to a combination of Martinez’s recent stability and Cincinnati’s dynamic offense. Martinez, while his season ERA sits at 4.19, has shown the ability to settle in after early trouble, delivering quality starts and limiting damage with a 1.24 WHIP and just 11 walks through 32.2 innings. His recent outings, including a six-inning, one-run performance against the Cardinals, suggest he’s finding his rhythm at the right time. If Martinez can keep the ball on the ground and avoid the big inning, he’s capable of matching up with even the hottest arms.
Backing Martinez is a Reds offense that ranks among the NL’s most productive, with Gavin Lux hitting .352 and Elly De La Cruz driving in 24 runs already this season. Cincinnati’s lineup combines speed, power, and on-base skills, making them a threat to score in any inning. While Hunter Brown has been dominant with a 1.67 ERA and 49 strikeouts, the Reds’ ability to grind out at-bats and capitalize on scoring chances gives them a real shot to break through. If Martinez delivers another steady start and the offense continues its balanced attack, look for the Reds to edge out the Astros in a tightly contested matchup.
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
Hunter Brown and the Astros are set up to take down Nick Martinez and the Reds on Friday, thanks to Brown’s dominant form and the Astros’ potential to break out offensively. Brown has been one of the league’s most impressive starters in 2025, boasting a 5-1 record, a stellar 1.67 ERA, and a 0.88 WHIP across 43 innings. He’s delivered seven straight quality starts and racked up 49 strikeouts, consistently overpowering opposing lineups and showing Cy Young-caliber command. Even when facing early trouble, Brown has shown the poise to settle in and give Houston a chance to win, as seen in his recent outings against the White Sox and Blue Jays.
While the Astros’ offense has struggled this season, ranking near the bottom of the league in most categories, their plate discipline remains a strength-they’re top-10 in walks, which could pay off against Martinez, who’s been inconsistent and prone to giving up big innings. The Reds’ offense, meanwhile, is mired in a slump, scoring just one run over their last two games and lacking consistency as the season progresses. If Brown continues his dominant run and the Astros’ bats capitalize on Martinez’s vulnerabilities, Houston is well-positioned to secure a win on Friday.
Final Reds-Astros Prediction & Pick
Friday’s matchup between the Reds and Astros features a compelling pitching duel: Nick Martinez (1-3, 4.19 ERA) for Cincinnati against Hunter Brown (5-1, 1.67 ERA) for Houston. The Reds enter with a potent offense, ranking second in runs scored (5.53 per game) and fourth in hits (9.29 per game), giving them the firepower to challenge Brown’s dominance. Martinez has shown recent improvement, limiting runs in his last two starts, and if he can keep the Astros’ lineup quiet early, Cincinnati’s bats could take control.
Houston, while boasting elite pitching, has struggled offensively, averaging just 4.33 runs per game and ranking 16th in MLB. The Reds’ ability to grind out at-bats and capitalize on scoring chances could be the difference, especially if they get into Houston’s bullpen. Expect a tight contest, but Cincinnati’s balanced lineup and Martinez’s steadiness give them a slight edge in this Friday night showdown.
Final Reds-Astros Prediction & Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (+150), Over 7.5 (-125)
