Subscribe
Follow Us
After two games, the Western Conference 2-7 matchup moves to California when the Golden State Warriors (49-35, 1-1) take their turn hosting the Houston Rockets (52-31, 1-1). It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Rockets-Warriors prediction and pick.
The series has primarily been a defensive affair through two games, with both teams honing in on that end. Golden State pulled off the upset in Game 1, taking a gritty 98-85 victory. The Warriors held the Rockets to just 39.1 percent from the field and 20.7 percent from deep.
However, the Rockets rebounded in Game 2 with a dominant 109-94 win. They limited the Warriors to just 41.3 percent from the field as Golden State struggled to adjust from the unexpected Jimmy Butler injury, which appears likely to hold him out of Game 3. After scoring just seven points in Game 1, Jalen Green exploded with 38 in Game 2 to even the series at one apiece.
Here are the Rockets-Warriors NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Rockets-Warriors Game 3 Odds
Houston Rockets: +2.5 (-112)
Moneyline: +116
Golden State Warriors: -2.5 (-108)
Moneyline: -136
Over: 203 (-112)
Under: 203 (-108)
How To Watch Rockets vs. Warriors NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
TV: ABC
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Rockets Will Cover the Spread/Win
The injury to Jimmy Butler might even be more meaningful than most realize. Stephen Curry led the way with 31 in the Warriors' Game 1 victory, but it was Butler who dictated the pace on both ends with 25 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and five steals. He did almost all of his damage in the paint, earning just four of his points from the foul line. Without him in the lineup, Golden State not only loses its most versatile defender but also its biggest paint presence.
The loss of Butler also allows Dillon Brooks to match up with Curry. Arguably the best wing defender in the league, Brooks' size was needed to defend Butler, allowing Curry to hit his patented fadeaway and stepbacks over the Rockets' smaller perimeter defenders. Without Butler, Ime Udoka is now free to throw any combination of Brooks, Green, Amen Thompson, and Fred VanVleet at Curry.
Without Butler, the Warriors lose the most significant piece of the offense that allows them to set Curry up with creative sets. At 37, Curry is less equipped to handle a full offensive load alone against an elite perimeter defense than he once was. During the regular season, Houston's switchable defense allowed the second-fewest three-point attempts (36.5) and three-pointers made (12.4).
Why the Warriors Will Cover the Spread/Win
Despite coming off a 15-point loss and a potentially devastating injury to Butler, the Warriors now return home, where they have arguably the best atmosphere in the NBA playoffs. Since 2021, Golden State is a stellar 15-3 in the postseason at home, proving to own one of the best home-court advantages in the league.
The Warriors do not have the size to match up with Alperen Sengun, but they pulled off the upset in Game 1 by stymying the Rockets' guards. Many assume Butler's injury will open up more minutes for Jonathan Kuminga, but it also potentially clears the path for Gary Payton Jr., who is still the team's best perimeter defender with a 109.7 defensive rating. Payton, a renowned playoff hero, gives Steve Kerr another pesky defender to throw at the red-hot Green.
If the Warriors can shut down the pick-and-roll game of Green the way they did in Game 1, Houston's offense is not potent enough to compete with them down the stretch. Another muddy, defensive battle would favor Golden State, with Curry being the best clutch scorer in the series. While the Rockets rank No. 5 in defensive rating, they currently have the third-worst offensive rating in the playoffs.
Final Rockets-Warriors Prediction & Pick
With a chance to officially steal home-court advantage, the Warriors are going to come out hot, as they typically do at the Chase Center. But if they do not have Jimmy Butler, this game will be tough for them to win. At full strength, it took a near-perfect game for Golden State and a putrid outing from Houston to squeeze out a 10-point victory on the road.
Without Butler, the Warriors have virtually no paint presence, barring a Herculean effort from Jonathan Kuminga. That leaves Curry to deal with any hellacious combination of Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, and Tari Eason on the perimeter. Golden State does its best to draw up schemes for its aging star, but this perimeter defense has been stout against similar play styles all season long. They fully flexed their muscles in Game 2, holding Curry to 6-for-15 from the field and allowing just four players to reach double figures.
On the other end, Golden State has the tools to make Green's life difficult in the pick-and-roll sets he endears but is virtually helpless in the paint without Butler. Try as they may, Draymond Green and Quinten Post cannot compete with the size and strength of Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams, and Jabari Smith Jr. all game. Houston has dominated the glass through two games, racking up 99 total rebounds to just 79 for the Warriors.
Final Rockets-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Rockets +2.5 (-112), Under 203 (-108)
