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The Connecticut Sun take on the Minnesota Lynx. Check out our WNBA Playoffs odds odds series for our Sun-Lynx prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Sun Lynx.
The Minnesota Lynx became the first home team to lose a WNBA playoff game in 2024. The first nine games of the 2024 WNBA Playoffs were won by the home team. In all nine of those home-team wins, the margin of victory was at least six points. The pattern was clear-cut and consistent.
That all changed Sunday night in Minneapolis. The Lynx fell to the Sun, 73-70, in a game with wild and abrupt twists and turns. The Sun led 29-20. The Lynx then uncorked a 15-0 run for a 35-29 lead. The Sun responded with a 10-0 run for a 39-35 lead and led 42-38 at the half. Minnesota outscored Connecticut 24-15 in the third quarter to take a five-point lead at 62-57 and then did not allow a basket to the Sun in the first two minutes of the fourth quarter.
Crucially, however, Connecticut held Minnesota scoreless in those same two minutes. The Lynx were locking down the Sun and playing good defense but could not extend that five-point lead. That mattered a lot.
Connecticut scored a few baskets, changed the energy inside an increasingly nervous Target Center, and hushed the Minnesota crowd. When it was all over, the Sun had scored a three-point win despite scoring just 16 points in the fourth quarter. Minnesota's defense remained really good, but the Sun held the Lynx to a shockingly low eight points in the final 10 minutes. Minnesota's offensive collapse and Connecticut's display of toughness rate as seismic developments in this best-of-five series. Minnesota fought very hard to get the No. 2 seed and home court in this series, which was the likely 2-versus-3 semifinal matchup weeks before the regular season ended. It was only a question of which team would get home court. The Lynx spent many weeks chasing down that advantage, only to give it away in one night.
What has to make Minnesota very, very concerned about this series is that Connecticut won on the road despite veteran and future Basketball Hall of Fame inductee DeWanna Bonner going 4 of 17 from the field. Bonner is not going to shoot that poorly on a regular basis. Connecticut therefore has room for growth, and that's in spite of winning Game 1 on the road.
If the Lynx are going to bounce back, they have to solve a Connecticut defense which smothered them for much of the game — mostly in the fourth quarter, but also in the first quarter (Minnesota scored just 16 points in that quarter). Lynx superstar Napheesa Collier, one of the top three players in the league alongside A'Ja Wilson (Las Vegas), Breanna Stewart (New York), averaged close to 40 points in the first round against the Phoenix Mercury. In Game 1 against Connecticut, the Sun limited her to 19 points. Collier putting up massive numbers is just not likely to happen in this series. The Lynx have to get offense from other sources, and they simply can't go through the long, paralyzing scoring droughts which proved decisive in the fourth quarter of Sunday night's Game 1. Minnesota was 5 of 20 on 3-pointers in Game 1. Either the Lynx need to hit more shots, or they need to get to the foul line more. In Game 1, they attempted only 13 free throws. Threes and foul shots have to improve for Minnesota to win and get back in this series.
Here are the Sun-Lynx WNBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
WNBA Playoffs Odds: Sun-Lynx Odds
Connecticut Sun: +5 (-112)
Moneyline: +172
Minnesota Lynx: -5 (-108)
Moneyline: -215
Over: 152 (-112)
Under: 152 (-108)
How To Watch Sun vs Lynx
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN, ESPN Plus
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Free Trial)*
Why The Sun Can Cover The Spread/Win
The Sun's veterans locked down on defense and made the game a tough halfcourt slog against the faster Lynx, who want to play more in the open court. What's the old saying about postseason basketball? It's easier to slow a team down than speed it up.
Why The Lynx Can Cover The Spread/Win
The Lynx must win. Napheesa Collier will find solutions. It's hard to see a team this good losing back-to-back games on its home floor.
Final Sun-Lynx Prediction & Pick
Minnesota will probably win, but Connecticut won Game 1 with DeWanna Bonner shooting 4 for 17. That makes us think we should pass on this game. We're not sure who will cover the spread.
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Final Sun-Lynx Prediction & Pick: Lynx -5
