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UFC Baku: Jamahal Hill versus Khalil Rountree Jr. continues on the prelims with a fight between Tagir Ulanbekov and Azat Maksum in the flyweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ulanbekov-Maksum prediction and pick.
Tagir Ulanbekov (16-2) rides a two-fight win streak into UFC Baku, having recently outpointed Clayton Carpenter by unanimous decision and submitting Cody Durden in the second round. Now, Ulanbekov aims to keep his momentum going by handing Azat Maksum his first loss this Saturday night
Azat Maksum (17-1) suffered the first loss of his career in a hard-fought unanimous decision against Charles Johnson after a gritty split decision win over Tyson Nam in his UFC debut. Now, Maksum looks to bounce back and reclaim his momentum by handing Tagir Ulanbekov a defeat at UFC Baku this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Tagir Ulanbekov-Azat Maksum Odds
Tagir Ulanbekov: -455
Azat Maksum: +350
Over 2.5 rounds: -260
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
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Why Tagir Ulanbekov Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Clayton Carpenter – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 (9 SUB)
Tagir Ulanbekov’s superior grappling and UFC experience give him a clear edge over Azat Maksum in their flyweight showdown this weekend. Ulanbekov has showcased relentless wrestling, earning seven submission wins and consistently controlling opponents on the mat, a skillset Maksum has struggled with against high-level competition.
Ulanbekov’s recent performances highlight his ability to neutralize strikers and grind out victories, as seen in his dominant win over Clayton Carpenter and a slick submission of Cody Durden. His fight IQ and composure under pressure allow him to adapt mid-fight, capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes and maintaining a steady pace throughout all three rounds.
While Maksum is a dangerous striker with a solid record, his UFC outings have exposed vulnerabilities, particularly when pressured and outworked in later rounds. Ulanbekov’s cardio and relentless grappling are likely to sap Maksum’s energy, forcing him to defend takedowns and submissions rather than implement his own offense.
If Ulanbekov can establish his wrestling early and avoid unnecessary exchanges on the feet, he should be able to control the tempo and dictate where the fight takes place. This strategy positions Tagir Ulanbekov to secure a clear decision or even a late submission victory at UFC Baku.
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Why Azat Maksum Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Charles Johnson – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 (4 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
Azat Maksum’s dynamic striking and well-rounded grappling give him a clear path to victory over Tagir Ulanbekov this weekend. Maksum’s southpaw stance and sharp jab allow him to control range, making it difficult for Ulanbekov to close the distance and initiate his wrestling-heavy game plan.
Maksum’s pendulum footwork and ability to blend striking with takedown attempts keep opponents guessing, and his knockout power is a real threat in the flyweight division. While Ulanbekov is known for his relentless wrestling, Maksum’s strong freestyle wrestling background and submission skills, five career submission wins, mean he can threaten off his back or scramble back to his feet if taken down.
Ulanbekov’s recent performances have relied heavily on control time and top pressure, but he has struggled to generate significant offense on the feet, with only one knockout in 18 professional fights. Maksum’s ability to mix up his attacks and exploit Ulanbekov’s lack of finishing ability on the feet could force Ulanbekov into uncomfortable exchanges, especially as the fight progresses.
If Maksum can maintain distance early and punish Ulanbekov’s takedown attempts with counters, he is likely to outland and outwork his opponent over three rounds. This strategy positions Azat Maksum to secure a statement win and reestablish himself as a top flyweight prospect in Baku.
Final Tagir Ulanbekov-Azat Maksum Prediction & Pick
This flyweight matchup at UFC Baku pits Tagir Ulanbekov, riding a three-fight win streak, against Azat Maksum, who is looking to rebound after his first career loss. Ulanbekov’s experience and grappling prowess have made him a favorite among analysts and oddsmakers, with most sportsbooks listing him as a significant favorite heading into fight week.
Ulanbekov’s ability to dictate the pace and control opponents on the mat has been a consistent theme in his UFC tenure, and he’s shown the cardio to maintain pressure over three rounds. Maksum, while a dangerous striker with a freestyle wrestling background, has struggled to impose his game against higher-level competition, as evidenced by his recent split and unanimous decision outings.
If Ulanbekov can avoid early trouble and establish his wrestling, he is likely to sap Maksum’s energy and rack up control time, limiting Maksum’s striking opportunities. Maksum’s best chance is to keep the fight standing and capitalize on any openings, but Ulanbekov’s fight IQ and recent form make that a tall order.
Ultimately, Tagir Ulanbekov grinds out a decision victory, using his grappling and experience to neutralize Maksum and solidify his position in the flyweight rankings.
Final Tagir Ulanbekov-Azat Maksum Prediction & Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov (-455), Over 2.5 rounds (-260)
