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These two teams have been very inconsistent, and a win in this matchup would go a long way toward keeping them off the bubble. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a prediction and pick for TCU-Cincinnati.
TCU is 15-11 and has won five of its last six games. It has quality wins against Xavier, Kansas State, BYU, Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas Tech. It also has notable losses in Michigan, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Iowa State. Noah Reynolds is the standout player for the Horned Frogs, and they need him to show up in a game that will be an ugly watch.
Cincinnati is 15-11 this season and has lost two straight. They have quality wins against Xavier, Dayton, and BYU. They also have significant losses against Villanova, Kansas State, Arizona, Baylor, Kansas, BYU, Utah, West Virginia twice, and Iowa State. Jizzle James makes the Bearcats go, and they need him to find some offense in a game that will be a rock fight between two solid defenses.
Here are the TCU-Cincinnati College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: TCU-Cincinnati Odds
TCU: +8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +300
Cincinnati: -8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -385
Over: 133.5 (-110)
Under: 133.5 (-110)
How to Watch TCU vs. Cincinnati
Time: noon ET/9:00 am PT
TV: ESPN2
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why TCU Will Cover The Spread/Win
TCU's defense is solid but has the potential to be even better. They allow 68.3 points per game, 44.6% from the field, and 31.6% from behind the arc. On KenPom, this defense is ranked 28th in adjusted defense, with a 96.9 rating.
Ernest Udeh Jr., down low, holds down TCU's defense. He leads the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals, averaging 7.5, 1.3, and 1.6 per game. Four total Horned Frogs are averaging one steal, including Udeh Jr., and this perimeter defense is better than what they have to offer down low.
The TCU defense should have some success in this game against Cincinnati. The Bearcats don't have much to like on offense outside of James, and TCU should shut down most of this offense. Defense is the one thing that travels in basketball.
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Cincinnati's offense has also been one of the worst in the conference. They score 71.6 points per game, have a field-goal percentage of 45.5%, and have a three-point percentage of 33.3%. They are also 100th in adjusted offense, with a 111.6 rating on KenPom.
Three players are averaging over double digits this season, with James being the most consistent scorer on the team, averaging 12.2 points per game. James is the engine for this offense and makes them go while also leading the team in assists with 3.8 per game.
This offense has had a rough time in Big 12 play. They will have a lot of issues in this matchup against a TCU defense that has more than enough playmakers in this game. Expect this offense to struggle.
Why Cincinnati Will Cover The Spread/Win
TCU's offense has been the worst in the Big 12 and one of the worst for a power conference team. They score 66.8 points per game, have a 42.9% field-goal percentage, and shoot 29.7% three-pointers. In KenPom, TCU has the 182nd-ranked adjusted offense, with a rating of 107.
Only three different Horned Frogs are averaging double digits in scoring this year. Reynolds is the best scorer on the roster, averaging 12.9 points per game. Since Frankie Collins got injured, Vasean Allette has been the assists leader, averaging 3.3 per game. They have not been able to move the ball all that well either, with the team only averaging 11.7 assists per game.
The key for the Horned Frogs is their defense, not the offense. This offense has been awful and will not do much against a great Cincinnati defense. This game will get ugly with neither team playing well on offense.
Cincinnati's defense has been a considerable strength in comparison to their offense. They allow 65 points per game, 41.9% from the field and 32.2% from behind the arc. KenPom also rates the Bearcats' defense as the 24th-best in college basketball, with a rating of 96.4.
Down low, this frontcourt has been solid overall. Dillon Mitchell and Aziz Bandaogo have been a great tandem up front on defense. Mitchell leads the Bearcats with 6.3 rebounds per game and steals with 1.5. Bandaogo is the block leader with 1.5 per game.
Cincinnati's defense faces a good matchup against a TCU offense that has had its fair share of struggles this season. The Bearcats have the advantage in this game at home on this side of the court.
Final TCU-Cincinnati Prediction & Pick
These teams are very similar. The difference is that the Bearcats have the better defense and that defense is the best unit in this game. I think James is also the best player in the game. Expect the Bearcats to win and cover at home against TCU in an ugly, defensive-oriented game.
Final TCU-Cincinnati Prediction & Pick: Cincinnati -8.5 (-110)
