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Bailey Ober heads to the mound for the Minnesota Twins as they face the San Diego Padres. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Padres prediction and pick.
Twins-Padres Projected Starters
Bailey Ober vs. Martin Perez
Bailey Ober (12-5) with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP
Last Start: Ober went six innings, giving up seven hits and three walks. He would allow just two runs in a no-decision as the Twins beat the Rangers.
2024 Road Splits: In 13 starts on the road this year, he is 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA and a .212 opponent batting average.
Martin Perez (3-5) with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP
Last Start: Perez went 5.1 innings in his last start, giving up five hits, a walk, and a home run. He would surrender one run in a win over the Pirates.
2024 Home Splits:
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Padres Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -112
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-182)
Moneyline: -104
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
How to Watch Twins vs. Padres
Time: 9:40 PM ET/ 6:40 PM PT
TV: BSNO/SDPA
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Twins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Twins are tied for seventh in the majors in runs scored while sitting tenth in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage, and sixth in slugging. Ryan Jeffers has led the way this year. He is hitting .231 on the year with a .311 on-base percentage. Jeffers has 19 home runs and 57 RBIs while scoring 45 times. Meanwhile, Carlos Santana has been solid this year as well. He is hitting .241 on the year with a .330 on-base percentage. He has 18 home runs and 55 RBIs while scoring 48 times this year. Also playing well is Byron Buxton. Buxton is hitting .275 this year with a .334 on-base percentage. He has 16 home runs, 49 RBIS and 54 runs scored this year. He is on the IL though with a hip issue, and others will need to replace his production.
Carlos Santana has been great in the last week production-wise. He is hitting just .182 in the last week with a .367 on-base percentage. He has three home runs, six RBIs, a stolen base, and seven runs scored in the last seven games. Willi Castro has also been solid. He is hitting .231 in the last week with two home runs, six RBIs and four runs scored. Ryan Jeffers has also been solid in the last week hitting .286 in the last week. He has two home runs, four RBIS, and four runs scored in the last week.
Current members of the Twins have 88 career at-bats against Martin Perez. They have hit just .218 against him. Carlos Santana has the most experience. He is eight for 32 with three doubles, a home run ,and nine RBIs. Jose Miranda is two for six, with both hits being home runs while he has four RBIs. Manuel Margot also has some success against Perez. He is three for 19 with two RBIs.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres are ninth in runs scored, while sitting first in batting average, seventh in on-base percentage, and tenth in slugging. Jurickson Proctor has been solid this year. He is hitting .291 on the year with a .389 on-base percentage. He has 19 home runs, 73 RBIs, and 71 runs scored. Manny Machado has also been having a great year. He is hitting .271 on the year with a .322 on-base percentage. He has 19 home runs, 71 RBIs and 60 runs scored. Jake Cronenworth rounds out the top bats of the year. He is hitting .248 this year with a .321 on-base percentage. He has 15 home runs, 72 RBIs and 57 runs scored.
Jake Cronenworth has been solid in the last week. He is hitting .250 in the last week with a .400 on base percentage. He has hit a home run, while having five RBIs and three runs scored. David Peralta has hit .350 in the last week. HE has two hmoe runs, four RBIs, and five runs scored. Further, Xander Bogaerts has been solid recentyl. He is hitting .261 in the lsst week with a .292 on base percentage. He has a home run, three RBIs, a stolen base, and two runs scored. The PAdres have hit .277 in the last week with with seven home runs and 26 runs scored in six games.
Current Padres have 18 career at-bats against Bailey Ober. They have hit just .167 against him. Xander Bogaerts is two for eight with a double. Further, Manny Machado is one for three with a double against Ober.
Final Twins-Padres Prediction & Pick
Bailey Ober has been great as of late. In his last five starts, he has pitched 34 innings, giving up just six runs. Further, he has four wins, and the Twins have won all five games he started. Martin Perez has also been solid as of late. In his three starts with the Padres, he has given up just four runs in 18.1 innings of work, all on solo home runs. The Twins are seventh in the majors in home runs this year. Still, the Twins offense is dealing with plenty of injuries though, and that will be the difference in this one.
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Final Twins-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres ML (-104)
