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The UFC 286 Prelims are finally here and we will be continuing our odds and pick series with this electric matchup in the Flyweight (125 lb) Division. Representing Manchester, England, the surging star of No. 12-ranked Muhammed Mokaev will be welcoming the debuting Brazilian Jafel Filho to the octagon. Check out our UFC odds series for our Mokaev-Filho prediction and pick.
Muhammed Mokaev is undefeated at 8-0 in his career and is perfect in his UFC appearances at 3-0. He's won two of his fights inside the distance by way of submission and outlasted Charles Johnson in a good decision for the English prospect. He seems to be the next big thing at 125 lbs and will be looking for another quick victory against a debuting Filho. Mokaev stands 5'7″ and has a 70-inch reach.
Jafel Filho is 14-2 in his MMA career and will be making his UFC debut after a DWCS win via submission over Roybert Echeverria. He's 7-2 in the Shooto Brasil organization and touts eight submission wins with five by KO/TKO. He'll be ready and hungry to show off his dangerous jiu-jitsu against an equally talented grappler. Filho stands 5'7″ and has a 68.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 286 Odds: Muhammed Mokaev-Jafel Filho Odds
Muhammed Mokaev: -850
Jafel Filho: +540
Over (2.5) rounds: +120
Under (2.5) rounds: -154
How to Watch Muhammed Mokaev vs. Jafel Filho
TV: ESPN+, ESPN Network
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET/ 12:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
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Why Muhammed Mokaev Will Win
Muhammed Mokaev burst onto the UFC scene as a fearsome grappler with technical submission skills and fundamental striking to back it up. The question has always been the levels of competition he's faced. But now being in the UFC, every fight is a tough one for Mokaev and it's clear that the matchmakers are trying to build him up slowly with increasingly tougher competition. He's excelled thus far and hasn't shown much adversity in the cage with dominant performances. Mokaev has the potential to be a once-in-a-lifetime grappler and at only 22 years old, he's shaping up to be a scary competitor in this division for a long time.
Mokaev will have the grappling edge in this one and will have to hold his own in the striking. He hasn't done terribly with striking in his previous fights, but he lacks the power in his hands necessary to knock opponents out. Instead, he threatens with leg kicks and straight punches to set up his takedown opportunities. From there, Mokaev is other-worldly in his grappling balance and is very good at chasing all submissions. Filho is a BJJ ace himself, so Mokaev will have to be wary of this and not put himself in any compromising spots.
Why Jafel Filho Will Win
Jafel Filho won a close back-and-forth fight in his DWCS bout but eventually showed that he can sustain his punching power in the later rounds as he scored a knockout win. Known for his jiu-jitsu, it was promising to see Filho finish a fight with his hands and show the variety of his game. He'll most likely find himself wrestling at some point against Mokaev, so look for Filho to be aggressive in the way he chases his submissions. He has twice as many professional fights as Mokaev and will look to use his experience to his advantage as a heavy underdog in this one.
To win this fight, Filho will have to refrain from playing into Mokaev's game and stun him with aggression. Mokaev has yet to face true adversity in the octagon, so Filho's game plan should be to wear on the young prospect and put him in difficult positions to see the response. If Filho can catch Mokaev sleeping for just one moment on the ground, he could come away with an improbably submission victory.
Final Muhammed Mokaev-Jafel Filho Prediction & Pick
Jafel Filho will probably be the toughest competition Mokaev has faced, but it doesn't change the fact that this will be Mokaev's fourth UFC fight in a year as he goes for another victory. While Filho will be physically imposing and dangerous with his BJJ, Mokaev will be oozing with confidence once again and will continue to look exponentially better each time he steps in the cage. Let's look for him to get it done with yet another submission victory.
Final Muhammed Mokaev-Jafel Filho Prediction & Pick: Muhammed Mokaev (-850); by Submission (+125); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-154)
