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We're here for another prediction and pick for this massive UFC 295 card from New York City as we dive deeper into the Main Card action. This next fight is an absolute scorcher at Lightweight (155 lb) as No. 14-ranked Matt Frevola takes on the surging Benoit Saint Denis of France. You won't want to blink during this one! Check out our UFC odds series for our Frevola-Saint Denis prediction and pick.
Matt Frevola (11-3-1) comes into this fight with a 5-3-1 record in the UFC so far. After back-to-back losses against Arman Tsarukyan and Terrance McKinney, Frevola has bounced back in a major way and has won his last three consecutive fights coming in. All three of those were knockouts in the first round, so expect Frevola to come out hot from the opening bell. He stands 5'9″ with a 71-inch reach.
Benoit Saint Denis (12-1) has gone 4-1 in his UFC career thus far. After losing his debut fight to a much more experienced Elizeu Zaleski, Saint Denis has won his last four consecutive fights and notched finishes in each one of them. All of those wins came before the third round could start, so expect Saint Denis to try and make quick work of his opponent here. He stands 5'11” with a 73-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 295 Odds: Matt Frevola-Benoit Saint Denis Odds
Matt Frevola: +185
Benoit Saint Denis: -225
Over 1.5 rounds: +110
Under 1.5 rounds: -140
How to Watch Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint Denis
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Matt Frevola Will Win
After his devastating loss to Terrance McKinney, Matt Frevola and his team at Longo Weidman went back to the drawing board to find a new approach for ‘Steamrolla'. Since then, he's reeled off three knockout wins in a row and had a massive upset over Drew Dober in his most recent fight. With the way Frevola throws his hands, many people forget how competent of a wrestler he is. In fact, three of his wins have come by way of submission and he has never been submitted in his career. Against a relentless grappler like Saint Denis, Frevola can more than hold his own in the grappling.
To win this fight, Matt Frevola will have to decide if he wants to play this safe or meet Saint Denis in the center of the octagon and trade inside of a phonebooth. Frevola certainly has one-punch knockout power in his hands, but he's also been susceptible to getting knocked out in the past. If he wants to avoid that fate, he'll have to focus on keeping his hands high and picking his shots with precision. With the hometown crowd behind him, Frevola will be additionally motivated to show out in front of his family and friends.
Why Benoit Saint Denis Will Win
Benoit Saint Denis has been on a rampage in the Lightweight Division and he's finished his last four opponents, two by knockout and two by rear naked choke. His most impressive win came against a hyped prospect in Ismael Bonfim and he followed it up with a nasty ground-and-pound finish over Thiago Moises in his last fight. He's been relentless in searching for the takedowns and will put everything into shooting for a leg on his opponent. On the ground, Saint Denis has nine submission wins to his name and has also never been submitted in his career. His squeeze during submissions is very tough to get out of and he could give Frevola major issues if he can take his back or mount on the ground.
Saint Denis can win this fight if he comes in with his same relenting attitude from hist latest winning streak. He has a tremendous chin and has also never been knocked out in his career. While he can certainly get hit while trading in the pocket, Saint Denis is a very devastating counter-puncher and can shut the lights out with one clean punch. He, too, likes to start fast, so expect him to march toe-to-toe with Frevola throughout this whole fight.
Final Matt Frevola-Benoit Saint Denis Prediction & Pick
Both of these fighters have very similar styles when it comes to their striking. Both fighters will meet their opponent in the center of the octagon and throw the kitchen sink in the very first round. As of late, both guys have been on impressive streaks and it's safe to say someone will be getting finished in this one.
I think Matt Frevola will surprise a lot of people with how well he defends the takedowns during this one. I expect both fighters to land hard on each other during the first round and it'll be interesting to see who shoots for the first takedown. For our prediction, we have to give the edge to Benoit Saint Denis. Both fighters are tough as nails, but Saint Denis hasn't been knocked out cleanly like Frevola has in the past. I expect Saint Denis' chin to hold up better in this fight as he gets the eventual finish over Frevola.
Final Matt Frevola-Benoit Saint Denis Prediction & Pick: Benoit Saint Denis (-225); Wins by KO/TKO (+165)
