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UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington continues on the prelims with a fight in the heavyweight division between Martin Buday and promotional newcomer Shamil Gaziev. Buday has won all four of his fights inside the octagon and is on a 12-fight winning streak.
Meanwhile, Contender Series alumni Gaziev is still undefeated, winning all 11 of his professional bouts as he makes his UFC debut. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Buday-Gaziev prediction and pick.
Martin Buday (13-1) has now all four of his fights in the UFC after getting signed off the Contender Series in 2021. He was able to finish Josh Parisian via first-round kimura back in August.
Shamil Gaziev (11-0) solidified his contract when he submitted Greg Velasco in Round 1 of the Contender Series back in September. He takes on Buday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 296 Odds: Martin Buday-Shamil Gaziev Odds
Martin Buday: -142
Shamil Gaziev: +120
Over 1.5 rounds: -190
Under 1.5 rounds: +145
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Why Martin Buday Will Win
Martin Buday exceeded most expectations when he came into the UFC through the Contender Series. He is now 4-0 in the biggest promotion after securing his contract with a first-round knockout on the Contender Series. Buday most recently submitted Josh Parisian in Round 1 to set up this matchup with promotional newcomer Shamil Gaziev.
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Gaziev, much like Buday, got secured his contract with a win on the Contender Series. He is an undefeated Russian prospect who has finished 10 of his 11 opponents. Buday will need to be wary of the power of Gaziev, and if he can navigate that, he can utilize his size and strength to take Gaziev down and do exactly what he did to Parisian and then dominate when it hits the mat. If he is able to do this, he can make it 13 wins in a row, setting him up for ranked opposition for his next fight.
Why Shamil Gaziev Will Win
Shamil Gaziev wasn't a known commodity coming into his Contender Series debut, but he sure put his name on the map in a hurry. He made quick work of his opponent when Greg Velasco submitted to him midway through Round 1. Gaziev now gets to take on arguably his stiffest competition to date in his UFC debut just three months later to end 2023.
Buday is a towering heavyweight who likes to utilize his size to neutralize his opponents against the cage and on the mat. At range however, he is a defensive liability where he tends to eat too many punches, which is something Gaziev can take full advantage of.
Gaziev has some vicious power on the feet with seven of his 11 wins coming by knockout or TKO, and the longer this fight plays out on the feet and at range, he should be the one who will be landing the devastating shots until he puts Buday away. It's up to Gaziev to keep this fight off the cage and on the feet, and if he is able to do that, he has a great chance of causing the upset and getting his first UFC victory.
Final Martin Buday-Shamil Gaziev Prediction & Pick
This is going to be a heavyweight slobber knocker as we continue on the UFC Fight Pass preliminary fights. Martin Buday just stays overperforming and gets the job done each and every fight, but now he gets to take on his most dangerous opponent yet in Shamil Gaziev. Meanwhile, Gaziev has made 10 of his 11 opponents part of his highlight reel, finishing all 10 in under six minutes.
It remains to be seen whether or not Gaziev can fight at that pace against someone like Buday for 15 minutes, but there is a good chance he will not have to. Buday has tendencies to get touched up on the feet much like he did against Jake Collier, which spells bad news for him going up against a powerhouse like Gaziev.
Ultimately, if Gaziev can keep this fight on the feet and away from the cage where Buday can just control and latch onto him, he should make quick work of Buday by cracking his chin with a powerful right hand that will have him crashing to the canvas for yet another knockout win and a picture-perfect UFC debut for the Russian heavyweight prospect.
Final Martin Buday-Shamil Gaziev Prediction & Pick: Shamil Gaziev (+120), Under 1.5 Rounds (+150)
