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We're set for another betting prediction and pick for UFC 297 as the Main Card action is heating up from Toronto. Our next bout takes place in the Middleweight (185) Division and features two brawlers as No. 14-ranked Chris Curtis will take on the hometown fighter in Marc-Andre Barriault. You won't want to blink during this one! Check out our UFC odds series for our Curtis-Barriault prediction and pick.
Chris Curtis (30-10) comes into this fight with a 4-2-0-1 record in the UFC since 2021. He's notched impressive wins over Brendan Allen and Joaquin Buckley, but dropped a unanimous decision to Kelvin Gastelum. His last fight against Nassourdine Imavov was ruled a ‘No Contest' after an accidental clash of heads and Curtis is looking to get back on track with a win here. He stands 5'10” with a 75.5-inch reach.
Marc-Andre Barriault (16-6) is coming in with a 5-5-0-1 record in the UFC. Since 2021, he's been hitting the peak of his career and has won four of his last six fights. He's coming in off two consecutive wins over Julian Marquez and Eryk Anders in which he came from behind on both occasions, so always be ready for Barriault to hit his second-wind and kick it up a gear. He stands 6'1″ with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 297 Odds: Chris Curtis-Marc-Andre Barriault Odds
Chris Curtis: -185
Marc-Andre Barriault: +154
Over 2.5 rounds: -160
Under 2.5 rounds: +124
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Why Chris Curtis Will Win
Chris Curtis has had a rough two last fights and he'll be eager to get himself back on track if he can pull a victory out on Saturday. Against Kelvin Gastelum, he seemed a bit hesitant to throw with confidence and he couldn't matchup the output of Gastelum coming back his way. he vowed to make improvements during his next fight, but the unfortunate clash of heads in his last fight halted his momentum even further. Against a tall, rangy striker like Imavov, Curtis had some trouble finding his striking and closing the distance. His opponent here isn't nearly as mobile and he should be an easier target for Curtis to hit and move around. He also has very solid wrestling and should have an advantage if this fight hits the mat.
Training alongside Sean Strickland during his championship camp will certainly elevate the performance of Chris Curtis and everyone under the Eric Nicksick team. With Barriault being a walk-down style fighter, Chris Curtis will have to use his foot movement and stick jabs while circling away from his opponent. Curtis loves to use his shoulder guard and roll with punches, which could serve him well against the straight and stiff shot of Barriault. He'll be giving up some height and reach, but Chris Curtis has great presence in the striking pocket and will see a lot of success using his boxing head movements.
Why Marc-Andre Barriault Will Win
Marc-Andre Barriault has been on a tear lately and his fights are becoming must-watch affairs, especially when he's fighting for the home Canadian crowd. Barriault should receive one of the loudest pops from the Toronto crowd as he's a fighter heavily predicated on the momentum he finds in the cage. He's been known to start slow at times and get his chin tested, but he's an extremely durable fighter and will keep moving with forward pressure despite the consequences. While he was down early on the scorecards in his last two fights, Barriault shined in the second rounds and was able to completely turn the fight in his direction. Don't count him out at any point despite being the betting underdog.
Marc-Andre Barriault may have to stay patient in finding Curtis' chin during this fight. Chris Curtis does a great job at covering his chin up and rolling with punches, so Barriault can't expend his gas tank if he finds himself whiffing on punches early on. Curtis has had trouble in the past getting backed up as his output wavers from his back foot, so Barriault will see success from employing his constant forward pressure and making Curtis cover up. If at any point he smells weakness, Barriault will go in for the finish and put his opponent away with the ground-and-pound.
Final Chris Curtis-Marc-Andre Barriault Prediction & Pick
This should be one of the more competitive fights on the card and both guys match up well in terms of skills and physicality. I don't expect the two to be on the ground for much of this fight as they're both comfortable chasing the knockout punch. With how consistent Chris Curtis is with his defense, Barriault could have some trouble finding his chin early in this fight.
It'll also be interesting to see how the home crowd wills Marc-Andre Barriault through this one and whether he'll be able to catch up to Chris Curtis' hand speed. If this fight sees the late third round, expect Barriault to empty the gas tank and go for the finish if he's down. For our prediction, we'll roll with Chris Curtis to get the victory as he should have a taylor-made partner in Sean Strickland to spar with ahead of this fight.
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Final Chris Curtis-Marc-Andre Barriault Prediction & Pick: Chris Curtis (-185)
