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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill will continue with its Main Card action from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas as we give you another prediction and pick for this Welterweight (170 lb) bout. Portugal's Andre Fialho will square off against Joaquin “New Mansa” Buckley as both fighters look to make a statement to the rest of the division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Fialho-Buckley prediction and pick.
Andre Fialho is 16-6 overall as a fighter and has gone 2-3 since joining the UFC. He's one of the few fighters representing Portugal and would like to see some success out of his hard-nosed striking style. He's had five fights with the promotion since debuting in 2022 and has been involved in some classic scraps. We should see him in another exciting fight here as he takes on Buckley. Fialho stands 6'0″ with a 74-inch reach.
Joaquin Buckley has a record of 15-6 and has gone 5-4 in the UFC since joining in 2020. Buckley is most remembered by his spinning jump kick KO against Impa Kasanganay, one of the greatest knockouts we've ever seen inside the octagon. After back-to-back losses, Buckley will drop a weight class and move to 170 for his first bout in hopes of finding new success. Buckley stands 5'10” with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Las Vegas Odds: Andre Fialho-Joaquin Buckley Odds
Andre Fialho: +172
Joaquin Buckley: -225
Over (1.5) rounds: -128
Under (1.5) rounds: +102
How to Watch Andre Fialho vs. Joaquin Buckley
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN App, UFC Fight Pass
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET / 4:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
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Why Andre Fialho Will Win
Andre Fialho has been incredibly active since joining the UFC in 2022 and has already been involved in five fights in his short amount of time. While he hasn't had much success, his striking style always calls for an exciting bout and he always has a chance to finish opponents with the way he throws everything into his strikes. Fialho has a very technical Muay Thai background and has very heavy hands to go along with his heavy leg kicks. If Fialho can utilize his leg kicks early, he could compromise the movement of the slower Buckley.
Fialho will also enjoy knowing that Buckley is dropping down to his weight class ahead of this one. Fialho will be the slightly bigger man in the octagon, but he'll be giving up the inches in reach. It'll be interesting to see how Fialho can stay in striking range against an aggressive guy like Buckley. His last fight against Muslim Salikhov was especially violent and Fialho sustained a ton of damage in the loss. We'll see how defensive he gets in this one as he tries to avoid another KO loss.
Why Joaquin Buckley Will Win
Joaquin Buckley has a great all-around skill set and is making this move to Welterweight because he was “tired of getting knocked out” at Middleweight. Buckley's size certainly fits this new weight class more naturally, but he'll have to shed some of his muscle mass if he wants to make the 15-pound drop. For this reason, Buckley will have the staunch power advantage and can easily put Fialho down if he lands clean. Buckley will also have a huge advantage in the wrestling department as the much sturdier guy and better wrestler.
For Buckley, the weight cut will be crucial in determining how well he does in this fight. If he doesn't prepare properly, he could be risking his chin through the weight cut, something you don't want to do against a power puncher like Fialho. Buckley should look to be patient from the start and pick up on Failho's striking tendencies. If he can get the timing down, he should be able to come up with some counter strikes to put damage on Fialho. If this fight gets ugly, Buckley will have the advantage in the scrambles. Fialho has gassed out in rounds two and three in the past, so Buckley should look to turn up the heat if this fight goes over the total.
Final Andre Fialho-Joaquin Buckley Prediction & Pick
While Andre Fialho is a great opponent for Buckley to face in his new weight class, “New Mansa” may be too much for the Portugese fighter to handle. Fialho sustained some serious damage in his last two fights and hasn't been reacting to punches well. Having just started his career, it's clear that the constant wars have taken a toll on his durability. Assuming he'll make the weight cut easily, let's go with Joaquin Buckley with the prediction to get the job done inside the distance.
Final Andre Fialho-Joaquin Buckley Prediction & Pick: Joaquin Buckley (-225); Win by KO/TKO (+120)
