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The action continues from the UFC Apex on Saturday as we bring you a prediction and pick for the third prelim of UFC Vegas 76 in the Lightweight (155 lb) Division. Georgia's own Guram Kutateladze will face off against Brazilian Elves Brener. This fight should cause some fireworks early on in the card! Check out our UFC odds series for our Kutateladze-Brener prediction and pick.
Guram Kutateladze is 12-3 as a professional fighter and has gone 1-1 in his UFC appearances. He won his debut fight in 2020 against a very tough opponent in Mateusz Gamrot. After a number of canceled fights, Kutateladze fell short against Damir Ismagulov in a tough three-round scrap. Just two fights in, Kutateladze has faced a couple of killers and will come in as a heavy favorite against Brener in this one. Kutateladze stands 5'11” with a 72-inch reach.
Elves Brener is 12-3 as a mixed martial artist and is 1-0 in the UFC after making his debut at UFC 284. He stepped in against Zubaira Tukhugov and was given the victory in a close split decision. At just 25 years old, he's still a very raw talent and will need a couple more fights under his belt to get into the swing of things. He's been an underdog before and will be one of the higher ones listed on this card as he looks for the upset win. Brener stands 5'10” with a 72.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 76 Odds: Guram Kutateladze-Elves Brener Odds
Guram Kutateladze: -700
Elves Brener: +470
Over 2.5 rounds: -122
Under 2.5 rounds: -104
How to Watch Guram Kutateladze vs. Elves Brener
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, fuboTV
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET/ 1:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Guram Kutateladze Will Win
Guram Kutateladze is a very solid fighter and does a number of things very well inside of the octagon. While he's not the most active striker, he lands at a 42% clip and defends shots at 58%. He's not much of a grappler and prefers to keep the fight standing, doing so with a solid takedown defense rate. Kutateladze will mix in high head kicks with his strikes and is very eager to engage in the clinch. From there, he's very aggressive with elbows and knees up the middle, so look for him to try to tie Brener up against the cage and wear him down.
To win this fight, Kutateladze will have to be the more patient and defensive striker. Brener lunges forward in the exchanges and throws with a lot of power behind his shots. If Kutateladze can weather the storm from in close, he could see some openings to land clean body shots or go for the takedown. Kutateladze will have a massive edge in this fight with his balanced approach, so we can see him picking up the decision victory if he sticks to his game plan.
Why Elves Brener Will Win
Elves Brener comes from the same Brazilian Chute Boxe camp as Charles Oliveira, so it's clear where he gets his “in your face” fighting style. Brener has a wide stance and bounces in and out of range very effectively. He's quick with his 1-2 combination on his entries and can throw shots with a ton of power. He's much better when he's the one pressing the action and moving forward, so look for him to be more assertive in this fight than his last.
To win this fight, Brener will have to be first wherever this fight goes. On the feet, he must be the one throwing combinations first and making Kutateladze guess his striking patterns. If he begins to get backed up, Brener's output may waver as he had trouble finding the striking range in his last fight. He'll have a massive hill to climb as this big of an underdog, but don't count Brener and his jiu-jitsu if this fight hits the ground.
Final Guram Kutateladze-Elves Brener Prediction & Pick
Guram Kutateladze is rightfully the heavy favorite and most of it can be attributed to his level of competition compared to Brener's thus far. While Brener is still a fresh talent, Kutateladze is a much more patient fighter and will let the fight come to him. Brener has a chance to upset if he can land a few big shots or go for a sneaky submission, but the odds are clearly in Kutateladze's favor. I expect this fight to be close from the optics, but Kutateladze will prove to be the fighter ahead on the scorecards. These guys both have great chins so their fight will most likely be going to a decision. Let's go with Kutateladze to win the fight on points.
Final Guram Kutateladze-Elves Brener Prediction & Pick: Guram Kutateladze by Decision (+125)
