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UFC Vegas 86: Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer continues on the prelims with a fight in the light heavyweight division between Zac Pauga and Bogdon Guskov. Pauga is coming off a devastating loss in his last fight and has now lost two of his three fights in the UFC meanwhile, Guskov got the short-notice call-up but ultimately succumbed to a submission defeat in round one as he looks to get back on the right track this weekend. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Pauga-Guskov prediction and pick.
Zac Pauga (6-2) got his chance to fight in the UFC after making The Ultimate Fighter Season 30 finale. He however has gone 1-2 during his short time in the octagon, sandwiching a very lackluster win against Jordan Wright in between losses to Mohammed Usman and Modestas Bukauskas. Pauga is in need of a big win when he takes on the dangerous Bogdan Guskov this weekend at UFC Vegas 86.
Bogdon Guskov (14-3) got the call on short notice and was thrown into the deep end when he took on former UFC Light Heavyweight title challenger Volkan Oezdemir in his UFC debut. He unfortunately succumbed to a first-round rear-naked choke to Oezdemir which put a damper on his first impression in the big leagues. Buskov will be looking to finally get his first win in the UFC when he takes on Zac Pauga this weekend at the UFC Apex.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Vegas 86 Odds: Zac Pauga-Bogdon Guskov Odds
Zac Pauga: -114
Bogdon Guskov: -106
Over 1.5 rounds: -110
Under 1.5 rounds: -120
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Why Zac Pauga Will Win
Zac Pauga looked poised to win season 30 of The Ultimate Fighter coming in as the heavy favorite over Mohammed Usman but Usman had other plans knocking him out in the second round. Usman has gone to win his next fights in the UFC meanwhile, Pauga split each of his next two fights. He will be taking on fellow light heavyweight Bogdan Guskov in an attempt to right his wrongs and get back into the win column.
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Pauga was a former NFL player turned MMA fighter and is still fairly new to the fight with only eight professional fights. He has shown progression from fight to fight and does his best work with his precision strikes like his jab and kicks to keep his opponents honest. Then, he will utilize his strength against his opponents to land his takedowns to inflict ground and pound. If Pauga can weather the early storm of Guskov he can take him into deep waters and drown him to a potential late finish and get back on track.
Why Bogdon Guskov Will Win
Bogdon Guskov came into his UFC debut with four straight first-round knockout victories which didn't last when he came into his UFC debut. He took on the stiffest competition in his career when he fought Volkan Oezdemir who submitted him rather quickly. Guskov is still searching for his first UFC victory when he takes on Zac Pauga this weekend at UFC Vegas 86.
Guskov is a very explosive striker with 12 of his 14 wins coming by knockout with eight of those knockouts coming inside the first round. What Guskov has going for him is that he starts fast and Pauga is notoriously someone who starts slow trying to feel out his opponents. If Guskov could be the one pressing the envelope early and bringing the fight to Pauga making it a tough and gritty fight he could potentially catch him with something big early for another knockout finish.
Final Zac Pauga-Bogdon Guskov Prediction & Pick
This light heavyweight fight is going to be exciting for however long it lasts. Both Pauga and Guskov are desperately in need of a win this weekend which should bring out the best in both of these fighters. Guskov is exceptionally dangerous and is probably the most dangerous opponent Pauga has faced thus far. His aggression is going to test Pauga's will to win early and is going to need to weather an early storm if he wants to become victorious.
That is something I can expect Pauga to be able to do. While he did get knocked out against Mohammed Usman but that fight was at heavyweight and it just seemed like it was the perfect punch. In this fight, it's going to come down to if Pauga can take a punch from Guskov and we will see that very early on and if that is possible he should be able to outwork Guskov down the stretch. Ultimately, Guskov is going to come out guns blazing looking for the finish early and Pauga will be able to withstand the barrage of strikes to weather the early storm just outpacing Guskov as he gasses out late for a TKO finish.
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Final Zac Pauga-Bogdon Guskov Prediction & Pick: Zac Pauga (-114), Under 1.5 Rounds (-120)
