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The USF Bulls and FAU Owls will battle in a matchup of two teams who aren't making much noise in the American Athletic Conference this season. Neither team has much chance to get back into the thick of the conference title race, but whichever team loses here can likely say goodbye to a bowl berth. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a USF-FAU prediction and pick.
USF needed to turn their season around after losing four of five games before their Week 8 matchup with UAB. USF's offense showed up early and led the team to a 35-25 win, which still wasn't good enough to cover the spread. The Bulls enter this game with a 3-4 record and the eighth seed in the AAC. It'll be nearly impossible for either of these teams to catch Army (6-0), Navy (4-0), or Tulane (4-0).
FAU didn't have the same result in their Week 8 game, losing 38-24 to UTSA. It's been a rough season for the Owls, as they've only won two games. FAU wasn't supposed to be a contender in the AAC this season, as shown by them being favorites in just three of their first seven games. Back-to-back losses have put them in 13th in the AAC.
Here are the USF-FAU College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: USF-FAU Odds
USF: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -130
FAU: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +110
Over: 52.5 (-110)
Under: 52.5 (-110)
How to Watch USF vs. FAU
Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT
TV: ESPN+
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Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why USF Could Cover The Spread/Win
FAU will prioritize running the ball in this matchup and for most of the season, but that doesn't mean they're perfect in that area. Their most significant issue is that their quarterbacks are too inconsistent to trust them to make a winning effort. Cam Fancher had 351 passing yards in the Owls' loss to North Texas but followed that up with just 96 yards against UTSA. USF's issue on defense is in the passing game, but depending on which version of FAU's quarterbacks show up, it won't matter.
We can't punish USF for taking on a challenging schedule. Although they have some poor stats, they've also taken on Alabama and Miami this season. It makes sense for them to have a poor passing defense when they've faced Cam Ward and Jalen Milroe.
Why FAU Could Cover The Spread/Win
On the flip side of the quarterback argument, it could be a big night if Fancher finds his rhythm against this USF defense. Fancher showed his potential with that 351-yard, three-touchdown performance against North Texas. USF is giving up the fourth-most passing yards per game in FBS, allowing opponents to tally 291.3 yards. They're also allowing 22.3 completions per game and a completion rate of 63.7%.
FAU's running defense holds the edge in this matchup. They rank 57th with 168.4 yards per game. It's a slight edge, as USF is also average at defending the run. However, they can attempt to rely on it if Fancher doesn't have his best stuff.
Final USF-FAU Prediction & Pick
We will guess that taking on Cam Fancher will feel like a breeze after defending Milroe and Ward this season. USF's record hurts from taking on Alabama and Miami in non-conference games, but they have the pieces to take care of FAU in this matchup. FAU could show up at home and pull off the upset, but the value of USF is too good to ignore.
Final USF-FAU Prediction & Pick: USF -2.5 (-110)
