The Minnesota Vikings will battle the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football at Ford Field. A first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is on the line as we continue our NFL odds series with a Vikings-Lions prediction and pick.

Vikings-Lions Last Game – Matchup History

This will be the first time two 14-2 teams have faced off in a final weekend and the highest combined winning percentage of teams facing off in the final weekend ever. Significantly, the Lions eked out a 31-29 win over the Vikings on Oct. 20 in Minneapolis. The Lions have won four games in a row in this series. Additionally, they are 3-2 in the previous five games at Ford Field.

The winner of this game will get home-field advantage throughout the NFC. Conversely, the loser will play either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Atlanta Falcons, one of which will be the winner of the NFC South.

Overall Series: Vikings lead 80-44-2.

Here are the Vikings-Lions NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFL Odds: Vikings-Lions Odds

Minnesota Vikings: +2.5 (-102)

Moneyline: +130

Detroit Lions: -2.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -154

Over: 56.5 (-105)

Under: 56.5 (-115)

How to Watch Vikings vs. Lions 

Time: 8:23 PM ET/5:23 PM PT

TV: NBC

*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why The Vikings Could Cover The Spread/Win

The Vikings have shattered all expectations this season, as they are playing for the best spot in the NFC after many expected them to finish either third or even last in the NFC North. Yet, Sam Darnold has taken this team on his shoulders with the best season of his career, tossing for 4,153 yards and 35 touchdowns with just 12 interceptions.

Aaron Jones has been good for them in the backfield, running 245 times for 1,093 yards and five touchdowns while catching 46 passes for 378 yards and two scores.

Meanwhile, Pro Bowler Justin Jefferson has continued to be one of the elite players in the game, with 100 receptions for 1,479 yards and 10 touchdowns. Jordan Addison added 62 catches for 875 yards and nine scores. Likewise, tight end TJ Hockenson returned from a serious injury to catch 39 passes for 446 yards but is still looking for his first touchdown.

The biggest reason why the Vikings have improved leaps and bounds this season was an explosive defense that has been a nightmare for opposing offenses. Ultimately, Andrew Van Ginkel has been exceptional with 46 solo tackles, 11.5 sacks, and two interceptions. Jonathan Greenard has tallied 37 solo tackles and 11 sacks. Both linebackers will be starting in the Pro Bowl.

Also, Joshua Metellus has added 60 solo tackles and two interceptions, while Pat Jones II has delivered 19 solo tackles and seven sacks. Any of those defenders can turn this game on a dime and can help swing the game in the Vikings' favor.

The Vikings will cover the spread if Darnold can protect the football and Jones can help move the chains with some good runs. Then the defense must contain running back Jahmyr Gibbs to force quarterback Jared Goff into long third-down situations.

Why The Lions Could Cover The Spread/Win

The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL. Yet, they have had to overcome so much adversity over the last few months as they have dealt with a plethora of injuries to their top defensive stars. For now, the offense has managed to pick them up, and Goff has been a major reason why with 4,398 yards passing, 36 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions.

But the Lions are a team that succeeds by running the football. With David Montgomery out for the regular season (a playoff return is not out of the question), Gibbs must shoulder the load. Gibbs has been fantastic this season, running the ball 227 times for 1,273 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching 47 passes for 486 yards and three scores.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has remained one of the best in the game, catching 109 passes for 1,186 yards and seven touchdowns. Likewise, Jameson Williams has 52 catches for 967 yards and seven scores. Sam LaPorta has not been as good as last season, yet he still has 53 catches for 663 yards and seven scores.

As previously mentioned, the defense is very broken right now. Still, DJ Reader and Kerby Joseph have kept them afloat. Reader has 10 solo tackles and three sacks as the leading pass rusher, while Joseph has 54 solo tackles and nine interceptions in the secondary.

The Lions will cover the spread if they can run the ball and create easier third-down situations. Then they must force the Vikings into tougher third-down chances.

Final Vikings-Lions Prediction & Pick

The Vikings are 11-4-1 against the spread, while the Lions are 11-5 against the odds. Moreover, the Vikings are 4-2-1 against the spread on the road, while the Lions are 4-4 against the spread at home.

The Vikings are 3-1-1 against the spread when facing the division, while the Lions are 3-2 against the spread when facing the NFC North. I am rolling with the Lions to eke out a win and cover the spread at home in a game that goes down to the wire.

Final Vikings-Lions Prediction & Pick: Detroit Lions -2.5 (-120)