We're back again with our coverage of UFC Atlantic City as we're set to bring you another prediction and pick for the next bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. Pennsylvania's own Bill Algeo will take on Canada's Kyle Nelson as both fighters ride winning streaks heading into this one. Check out our UFC odds series for our Algeo-Nelson prediction and pick.
Bill Algeo (18-7) comes into this fight with a 5-3 record in the UFC since 2020. After a shaky start to his tenure, Algeo has dialed his game in and has won four of his last five fights. He comes into this one following back-to-back wins over TJ Brown and Alexander Hernandez looking for a possible ranking with a win. Algeo stands 6'0″ with a 73-inch reach.
Kyle Nelson (15-5-1) comes in with a 3-4-1 record in the UFC. Of his last five, he's 2-2-1 but has won back-to-back fights against Blake Bilder and Fernando Padilla before seeing Algeo in this one. Nelson will be looking for his third-straight unanimous decision victory as well. He stands 5'11” with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Atlantic City Odds: Bill Algeo-Kyle Nelson Odds
Bill Algeo: -236
Kyle Nelson: +201
Over 2.5 rounds: -220
Under 2.5 rounds: +180
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Why Bill Algeo Will Win
The last time Bill Algeo fought in the New York/New Jersey area, he came away with a big win over Herbert Burns as he wore him out to a finish by exhaustion. Algeo will see Kyle Nelson, who has a much better gas tank than Burns, so the pace could be frantic for the majority of this fight. Still, Algeo will be more willing to take chances here and he's been able to find more ways of finishing his fights compared to Nelson. Algeo will keep coming during all points of this bout and he's one of those fighters that you can never count out before the final bell.
Bill Algeo will have the much higher striking output here, but he'll have to hit his target if he wants to inflict any damage. He's not known for his power and his opponent has a very solid chin, so Algeo will have to take this bout on the back of his output and activity. The nastier this fight looks, the more it will favor Algeo's ability to improvise and find reversals in tough positions.
Why Kyle Nelson Will Win
Kyle Nelson is a very consistent fighter and he's much more predictable in terms of what you'll see from him opposed to Algeo. Nelson has a very strong fighting stance and strikes behind a stiff jab. He'll use head movement to work around his target, but he's typically throwing straight shots and hooks. Nelson is eager to grapple with his opponents along the fence and he could see success in frustrating Algeo by stifling his activity.
Kyle Nelson faced extremely dangerous finishers in TJ Brown and Alex Hernandez during his last two bouts. He won't be seeing nearly as much power coming back his way from Algeo, so it should open up some opportunities for him to let his hands fly and mix-in his wrestling game as well. If he can keep a level-head and not bait himself into his opponent's antics, he should be able to cruise to a decision win in this one.
Final Bill Algeo-Kyle Nelson Prediction & Pick
Both fighters are near each other in the rankings and they've both seen their game plans be successful over the last five fights. With Kyle Nelson, we know he's going to feed a steady diet of jabs and look for the late-round takedowns. Bill Algeo is much more variable in his approach and we'll see him throw some awkward striking looks back at Nelson.
Kyle Nelson can control this fight if he marches forward with his jab, shells up during the exchanges, and works his takedowns to completion. If he can repeat that cycle over three rounds, he should be able to come away with a unanimous decision win here.
However, Bill Algeo is more willing to take chances here and I expect him to sell-out for the finish a few times during this fight. He's got a dog mentality and I like his chances to reverse positions late in this fight if it comes down to the wire.
For our prediction, we'll roll with Bill Algeo to get the win. I expect him to sweep and flip positions on the ground here and I like his creativity in chasing submissions from different positions.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Bill Algeo-Kyle Nelson Prediction & Pick: Bill Algeo (-236); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-220)
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