Bowl season continues on Tuesday with the Boca Raton Bowl. The Liberty Flames (8-4) face the Toledo Rockets (8-5). Action kicks off at 7:30 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with a Liberty-Toledo prediction and pick.
Liberty is 8-4 but is not a member of any conference. The Flames notably defeated BYU and Arkansas in addition to losing one-point games to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. Liberty is 5-7 against the spread while 50% of their games have gone over.
Toledo is 8-5 and finished in first place in the MAC after defeating Ohio in the championship game. The Rockets notably got crushed by Ohio State and suffered a tight loss to San Diego State. Toledo is 5-8 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone under.
Here are the Liberty-Toledo college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.Â
College Football Odds: Liberty-Toledo Odds
Liberty: +3.5 (-114)
Toledo: -3.5 (-106)
Over: 53.5 (-105)
Under: 53.5 (-115)
Why Liberty Could Cover The Spread
Liberty had a strong season despite facing a variety of non-conference opponents and losing their last three regular season games. The Flames feature a strong offense that ranked 68th in scoring (28.3 PPG) and 59th in total offense (400 yards per game). Defensively, they ranked 56th in points allowed (24.9 PPG) and 36th in total defense (345 yards per game). Liberty will notably be playing under an interim coach after Hugh Freeze left the Flames for Auburn last month.
Liberty's high-powered offense starts with their strong rushing attack. The Flames rank 47th in the country in rushing, averaging 178 yards per game. Leading rusher Dae Dae Hunter suffered a season-ending injury in November, but they have a number of capable options that have filled in for him. Junior Shedro Louis rushed for 492 yards and seven touchdowns this season, while senior TJ Green racked up 229 yards and two scores. Toledo has the country's 59th-ranked rushing defense, however, so the Flames will likely have to turn to their passing attack if they want to cover.
Liberty's passing attack is unique in that they utilize up to three different quarterbacks in a given game. Junior Johnathan Bennett and freshman Kaidon Salter both passed for over 1,000 yards this season. Salter is a major threat in their run game as well, having rushed for 221 yards and two touchdowns this season. Regardless of who is throwing the ball, wide receiver Demario Douglas is sure to be a focal point. The sophomore speedster ranked 18th in the country in receptions per game (6.1) and tacked on 977 yards and six touchdowns. He's caught at least seven passes and accumulated 69+ yards in six straight games. Toledo allows the 16th-fewest passing yards per game – something to keep in mind before making a Liberty-Toledo prediction.
Why Toledo Could Cover The Spread
Toledo arrives at FAU Stadium having just won the MAC Championship over Ohio, 17-7. The Rockets feature an explosive offense that ranked 39th in scoring (32.1 PPG) and 54th in total offense (406 yards per game). On defense, Toledo ranked 59th in points allowed (25.5 PPG) and 25th in total defense (332 yards per game).
Offensively, the Rockets are a balanced unit that starts with the run game. Toledo ranked 49th in the country in rushing offense, averaging 178 yards per game. They have a number of strong backs but are led by a pair of 600-yard rushers. Sophomore Jacquez Stuart leads the team with 659 rushing yards and chipped in four touchdowns. However, their most dangerous rusher may be quarterback Dequan Finn. Finn rushed for 608 yards this season and led the team with eight rushing touchdowns. He's coming off his most prolific rushing game of the season when he scampered for 86 yards on 18 attempts in the MAC Championship.
While Finn is a talented runner, he is still a solid passer. Finn threw for 2,127 yards this season and threw the 31st-most touchdowns in the country (22). While his production has been inconsistent, he's flashed incredible potential – notably throwing six touchdowns in their win over Kent State. Toledo has a number of options for him to throw to. Three receivers caught at least 37 passes this season with junior Jerjuan Newton leading the way. Newton caught 48 passes for 788 yards and nine touchdowns. Newton is a viable red zone threat, but when they get inside the 20 Toledo turns into the Jamal Turner show. The senior tight end caught just 26 passes this season but eight of them went for touchdowns. He notably caught touchdowns in six consecutive games to start the season and could be a sneaky touchdown scorer propped matched up against Liberty's 47th-ranked Red Zone defense.
Final Liberty-Toledo Prediction & Pick
With both teams possessing high-powered offenses and shaky defense, this seems like a great spot for the over in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Final Liberty-Toledo Prediction & Pick: Over 53.5 (-105)
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