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Since joining the Mountain West Conference, Boise State football has grown used to chasing conference titles. The Broncos have captured four outright MWC championships since 2014 — including beating UNLV for last year's title.
The Rebels once again stand in the way of a fifth conference crown on Friday. The Broncos enter their Albertsons Stadium home with Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty and the nation's fifth-ranked offense in tow. Only this time, there are historical elements BSU can reach.
A Boise State victory gives the program its first back-to-back MWC titles. San Diego State represents the last team to win consecutive conference crowns in 2015 then 2016. But there's more — beating UNLV can solidify the Broncos' first-ever berth into the College Football Playoffs. They're entering the weekend ranked 10th overall in the CFP rankings, ahead of Alabama and Miami.
Not only are the Broncos and Rebels meeting again for the right to hoist the conference championship. But both teams meet again after BSU and Jeanty escaped 29-24 on Oct. 25 in Allegiant Stadium.
So many questions hover above this contest. Will Jeanty deliver one more 200-yard outing? Can BSU head coach Spencer Danielson add one more MWC title, this time after shedding the interim tag? Or is this the year the Rebels finally place their fingerprints on the MWC championship hardware? Especially after so many years of futility?
There are already predictions for how Jeanty's day will play out against UNLV. Time to dive into the bold predictions involving Boise State, as a whole, ahead of the big showdown during conference championship weekend.
Boise State and UNLV head coaches will get aggressive
Danielson has allowed a simple yet violent approach to charge the offense. It's simply hand it off to your thoroughbred Jeanty, let him wear down the defense, then open up the play-action passes.
But in facing the conference's best run defense, Danielson will have to convince his offensive coaches — particularly offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter — to get aggressive with their calls. Don't be shocked if Danielson opts for fourth down gambles or a past BSU staple returns for this game: Trick plays. A hook-and-ladder pass, or fake punt, could get pulled out of the coaching bag.
However, don't expect UNLV head coach Barry Odom to take a passive approach, either. Odom will tap into his offensive coordinator, Brennan Marion, to hit BSU with misdirection runs or deep shots. Marion runs one of the more unorthodox offenses in the nation with his “Go-Go” system. They ate up 367 total yards in the October meeting.
Broncos will bracket Ricky White III
Danielson's area of expertise is defense. He found a way to bottle high-powered Rebels wide receiver Ricky White III in Sin City. The 1,000-yard WR settled for five catches, 57 yards, but averaged 11.4 yards per catch.
Bracket coverage is imminent for White. That only means Danielson will attempt to keep White III in front of them, not slip behind them.
White's biggest reception in the last meeting was a 24-yarder. Marion is going to aim to move White around. Danielson, though, will do everything in his power to bottle the talented wideout.
Ashton Jeanty will witness a new season low for yards
Relax on this bold prediction. Jeanty, as long as he's on the field, will always threaten to scale 100 yards.
He'll cross that mark — except he'll hit a new, rare season low.
UNLV has surrendered only 101.1 yards per game facing the run. Jeanty earned 129 yards in the last contest versus the Rebs but endured a season-worst 3.9 yards per carry.
Expect Odom to throw out eight to nine-man boxes to slow down the mammoth RB. Jeanty only crosses over 100 yards if Boise keeps feeding him the ball into the fourth quarter.
Boise State QB Maddux Madsen will throw way more.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that Jeanty is getting the football. It's the worst-kept secret entering this game.
All the more reason why Odom, defensive coordinator Mike Scherer, and the company will construct their most aggressive game plan yet for the potential Heisman finalist. That means Maddux Madsen is due for a heavier emphasis.
Koetter has raised Madsen's game this season by hitting career-highs in yards and touchdowns. But Madsen's last 300-yard game was Nov. 1 against a San Diego State team undergoing a rebuild. Madsen has to elevate his game to another level here.
Madsen isn't much of a runner compared to last year's MWC champion QB Taylen Green. However, he did break off a rare 49-yard scamper on UNLV. But Jeanty's stellar play allowed Madsen to dial back on needing to trust his arm. Jeanty is due to find little running room against his toughest run defense yet. Madsen has to bail him out by spreading the ball around.
The MWC champ will be…UNLV
Both teams are immensely talented. The Broncos have looked like the MWC team of destiny in this new postseason format. But UNLV has the Broncos where it wants them. Now, they get the opportunity to celebrate a win over BSU — on the Broncos' home field.
The Rebs got educated one year ago at home on how to win a conference championship. They then watched BSU celebrate on their home field once more. UNLV has claimed four straight wins since that defeat.
Oh, the last time the conference title got held on the Blue Turf, the Broncos dropped the ball badly against a Fresno State team that was riding its winning streak. An emotionally highly motivated Rebels team has the chance to prove they finally belong at the top of the Mountain West.
They have most of their players back from that '23 championship meeting. Except this time, they've got the true dual-threat at QB in Hajj-Malik Williams, who accumulated 284 total yards in the October game. His presence, Odom's coaching, plus the revenge factor all culminate in the upset on the blue.
