Patrick Mahomes has led the Kansas City Chiefs back to the Super Bowl, where they will face the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58. Throughout this postseason run, the star quarterback has looked like the Mahomes of years past.
Mahomes is an electric playmaker capable of making magic happen on any given play. He regularly makes the spectacular look average. This makes it difficult to make bold predictions given the video-game like stat lines Mahomes puts up frequently, but let’s get a little crazy and make some bold predictions for the Chiefs QB anyway.
Patrick Mahomes finishes the game with 40+ passing attempts and 350+ passing yards
With the Super Bowl likely to be a high scoring game, the Chiefs will be relying heavily on Mahomes to lead the way. Expect Mahomes to throw the ball at least 40 times, and don't be shocked if that number is closer to 50 by the end of the game. History has shown that when Mahomes throws the ball heavily, good things happen both for him personally and for his team. Chiefs fans can expect at least three or four chunk plays that go for 30 or more yards each.
If this happens, Mahomes should be well on his way to a 300-yard passing game at minimum. He could likely go much higher than that, perhaps even crossing the 400-yard threshold.
If Mahomes attempts 45 passes and completes 60 percent of them, that would be 27 completions. Based on Mahomes’ willingness to take deep shots down the field and his ability to complete those along with the ability of Kansas City's pass catchers to gain yards after the catch, we can expect Mahomes to average around 13 yards per completion. This would put him at exactly 351 passing yards. If he is able to average 15 yards per completion, which could conceivably happen with a few 50+ yard passes mixed in, he’s at 405 passing yards.
Mahomes throws 4 or more passing touchdowns
This game is likely to be a shootout, and the Chiefs will need to keep pace. Luckily, they have the firepower to do so. With Mahomes under center, a speedy deep threat in Rashee Rice and one of the greatest tight ends to ever play the game in Travis Kelce, the Chiefs offense can score with anybody. Kansas City may not have looked as dominant offensively in the 2023 season as they looked in the past, but make no mistake about it: This offense is still elite, and they can flip the switch when necessary.
Ever since Kansas City's playoff run began in the Wild Card game, the Chiefs have looked more like the Chiefs of old than the inconsistent team that they were for much of this season. Kansas City is back, and Mahomes is leading the charge offensively.
Mahomes has been more willing to adjust his play style this season and Kansas City has run a more balanced offense. But we know that he is still Patrick Mahomes, and this is a game where the Chiefs will need him to put the team on his back.
We all know what Mahomes is capable of and the Chiefs should be confident in his ability to lead them to victory. Look for Mahomes to go supernova and throw for at least four touchdowns as he carries his team to victory.
Mahomes has at least 40 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown
This will likely be a close game, and the Chiefs will need Mahomes to give it everything he has to win.
Mahomes isn’t typically considered to be a running quarterback, but he is mobile and athletic. He certainly has the ability to take off and gain yards with his legs, and this weekend he will have to do just that for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.
These teams are fairly evenly matched up and the 49ers have one of the top five defenses in the league. Most analysts consider their defense to be top three and there’s even a strong case to be made that they are the best overall defense in the NFL.
San Francisco’s excellent front seven will likely keep Isiah Pacheco in check, and they have the talent in the secondary to hang with Kansas City’s weapons downfield. San Francisco has several hard-hitting linebackers who are also fast enough, strong enough, and athletic enough to mirror pass catchers on routes and cover tight ends down the field. This is incredibly important, because tight end Travis Kelce is Mahomes' primary target in the passing game.
Mahomes is going to have to find another way to put pressure on San Francisco in order to break the structural integrity of the 49ers' defense and create openings down the field to throw the ball.
It isn’t often that the Chiefs need Mahomes to be a true dual-threat quarterback and run the ball, but this is one of those rare games where they will need him to do just that.
Mahomes has the talent and skill set to pull that off, and he has proven throughout his career that he is willing to do whatever it takes to get his team a victory. This is especially true in big games, and it doesn’t get any bigger than the Super Bowl.
Mahomes throws for at least 100 more yards than Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy is a good quarterback, but he isn’t Patrick Mahomes. Purdy has weapons in the passing game, but Christian McCaffrey is likely to see a heavy workload in the running game, which will cut into Purdy’s passing attempts.
If Mahomes has at least 15 more passing attempts than Purdy, which is feasible, it is certainly possible for Mahomes to throw for at least 100 more yards than Purdy.
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