After winning just about every award possible for a college football player last season, USC quarterback Caleb Williams entered the 2023 season with a high profile and even higher expectations.
The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner would have been the consensus number-one overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Instead, Williams decided to return to USC for his junior year. His dad even mentioned the possibility of Caleb forgoing the draft again in 2024 and staying for his senior year if the team selecting first overall was not to their liking. But after Caleb Williams' recent struggles, he might not have that flexibility anymore.
Caleb Williams Struggling under pressure
It felt like every early-season Caleb Williams highlight featured the USC standing in the pocket for upwards of 10 seconds before scrambling and making a wild but uncontested throw to a wide-open receiver. In recent games, the Trojan offensive line has struggled to protect its invaluable quarterback. Williams has been sacked 17 times in his last four games after the team gave up just seven sacks in his first five contests. Without the time in the pocket to be a playmaker, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner has been far less successful.
Williams had 1,603 passing yards, 21 TDs, and just one interception in his first five games this season. Over his last four contests, he has 1,043 yards (a decrease of 60 yards per game), four touchdowns, and three interceptions. The decline of the o-line has also forced Williams to be more of a runner, which has decreased his effectiveness as a ball carrier. Williams is averaging 12 carries per game in this recent stretch after just 5.2 carries per contest during the first half of the campaign.
His performance against Notre Dame on October 14 especially highlighted these issues. The Fighting Irish sacked Williams six times and picked him off on three occasions — holding the USC QB to a season-low 199 passing yards as the Trojans also scored a season-low 20 points.
Unfortunately for Williams, the pressure he has faced in recent weeks more closely simulates the opposition he will face in the NFL. Few offensive lines can offer the type of protection that USC afforded Williams early in the season. As the likely number-one pick, the team selecting him will probably have a mediocre offensive line. He can either be scrambling and waiting for an open receiver to emerge, or he can work within the offense by finding a rhythm and hitting receivers on time. While making Patrick Mahomes-esque plays with his feet will help him succeed in the NFL, even the best quarterbacks need to be able to play out of the pocket and find open receivers early and within the flow of the offense.
It is unclear yet how Caleb Williams' downturn in form in recent games will affect his draft stock. Williams is still a consensus first-round pick in most mock drafts, going in the top three in almost all of them. But he is no longer the obvious number-one overall choice. North Carolina QB Drake Maye and Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. are the likeliest candidates to surpass Williams in the draft. Maye is not as flashy as Williams, but he has all the tools to be a great NFL QB and many experts believe he has a higher floor than Williams.
Caleb Williams still has time to resolidify his draft stock in the last quarter of the season, but his struggles over the last few games mean that the USC QB is no longer the consensus number-one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
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