The Houston Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers to open up the 2025 NFL playoffs. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Chargers-Texans prediction and pick.
Chargers-Texans Last Game – Matchup History
This will be the third straight meeting at NRG Stadium. These two teams last met in 2022 when the Chargers defeated the Texans 34-24.
Overall Series: The Chargers own a 6-3 record all-time against the Texans but are just 1-2 in the LA era.
Here are the Chargers-Texans NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
AFC Wild Card Odds: Chargers-Texans Odds
Los Angeles Chargers: -2.5 (-118)
Moneyline: -154
Houston Texans: +2.5 (-104)
Moneyline: +130
Over: 42.5 (-110)
Under: 42.5 (-110)
How to Watch Chargers vs. Texans
Time: 4:30 ET/1:30 PT
TV: CBS/Paramount+
*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Chargers Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Bolts come into this game as favorites to escape Houston with a win. The Texans are dealing with injuries that have seriously depleted the elite-level offense the Texans showcased during the majority of the season. Without Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell available, the Texans passing game will struggle against the Chargers' No. 1 defense in the NFL. LA allowed just 17.7 points per game during the regular season, the best in the NFL. They also allow just 206.9 passing yards per game. If the Bolts didn't allow 40 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a few weeks back, those defense numbers would look even better.
The Chargers signed Ezekiel Elliott to the practice squad on Monday night. He will serve as one of the backups to fellow Ohio State product, JK Dobbins for this postseason. Dobbins had a phenomenal regular season, rushing for 905 yards and nine touchdowns in just 13 games. Dobbins averaged 4.6 yards per carry which was in the top 15 among starting RBs.
Justin Herbert had a sneaky good season for the Chargers. He only threw three interceptions in 504 passing attempts. Yes, he only threw for 23 touchdowns this year but if you paid any attention to this team this season, you knew that offensive coordinator Greg Roman was going to run the ball. Over the course of the season, Herbert's passing numbers increased the more he utilized Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. The rookie receiver hauled in 82 catches for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns this year. The sophomore receiver improved a ton and recently just had a 13 catch/186 yard-outing against the Las Vegas Raiders in the Week 18 win.
The injuries LA is dealing with are Gus Edwards, Denzel Perryman, Kristian Fulton, and Trey Pipkins III. Edwards will likely miss the playoffs after the signing of Zeke, however, there is no word on Edwards yet. Perryman, Fulton, and Pipkins should all play but are currently questionable.
Why The Texans Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Texans need their home crowd to play a part in this contest. Houston is dealing with injuries that may affect them in this game. If healthy, this Texans offense is stacked. However, they must overcome those injuries and find a way to defeat a very good Chargers team, coached by Jim Harbaugh.
Houston finished the regular season winning just three of their final six games. They won the AFC South Division but is that really a success right now? If they manage to beat LA, then yes. But they are in a position where they are facing a team better than them and must take advantage of their home crowd.
The Texans need Joe Mixon to play very well. He needs to average at least four yards per carry against the Chargers. The more they give him the rock and control the clock, the less the Chargers have an opportunity to do the same. LA is going to try and control the time of possession with Dobbins and the only way Houston can reciprocate is by doing the same thing. Mixon is a top-10 RB in the NFL but has not scored in his last four games.
CJ Stroud needs to play mistake-free football against this Bolts' defense. He threw 12 picks this season which is respectable, but he also fumbled three times while being sacked 52 times. Stroud's overall numbers decreased from his rookie season but we all remember him defeating the Cleveland Browns in this same 4-5 matchup last season. Stroud and Nico Collins need to connect time and time again to keep their offense on the field.
Final Chargers-Texans Prediction & Pick
This will be a great game to kick off the postseason. It may not be a high-scoring affair and the odds are proving that to be the case. The Chargers' defense is very good and should give the Texans' offense fits. The Under may be a good pick, but we are rolling with the Bolts to get the job done on the road. Take the Moneyline to be safe.
Final Chargers-Texans Prediction & Pick: Chargers ML (-154)