We're set for another monumental UFC 300 betting prediction and pick as we dive deeper into the Main Card for our next featured bout in the Lightweight (155) Division. Former Champions and No. 1-ranked Charles Oliveira will square off against No. 4-ranked Arman Tsarukyan of Armenia. Check out our UFC odds series for our Oliveira-Tsarukyan prediction and pick.
Charles Oliveira (34-9) has gone 22-9-0-1 during his UFC stint en route to becoming Lightweight Champion. He's lost just one fight to Islam Makhachev over his last 13 bouts and returned after the loss to handily beat Beneil Dariush his last time out. With the belt in sight, Oliveira will look to turn away one of the division's scariest prospects. Oliveira stands 5'10” with a 74-inch reach.
Arman Tsarukyan (21-3) has gone an impressive 8-2 in the UFC since 2019. He's won seven of his last eight bouts with one lone loss coming to Mateusz Gamrot during their Main Event fight. Since the loss, he's picked up three straight wins and just recently put away Beneil Dariush as well. He could become the new No.1 contender with a win here. Tsarukyan stands 5'7″ with a 72.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 300 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 300 Odds: Charles Oliveira-Arman Tsarukyan Odds
Charles Oliveira: +170
Arman Tsarukyan: -200
Over 1.5 rounds: -135
Under 1.5 rounds: +105
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Why Charles Oliveira Will Win
Charles Oliveira will be making his return to the cage with only championship aspirations on his mind. Of course, he must get through Arman Tsarukyan first, but he's no stranger to facing very talented contenders who are looking to make the championship jump. Oliveira basically cleaned out the division during his run to the title, so it makes sense he stands in Tsarukyan's way for a title. He continues to be the most dangerous submission artist in the sport and he'll be looking for his record 22nd win by the method. His striking has also made massive leaps during his championship run and he's made himself into a dangerous finisher from just about anywhere.
On paper, it's easy to give Arman Tsarukyan the striking advantage due to his past fights. However, Charles Oliveira has sneaky power in his punches and if he's able to sit down on a clean one, he has every ability to end this fight by knockout. Still, he's the sizable underdog and he'll be met with staunch resistance from Tsarukyan along every step. Oliveira should look to eventually bring this fight to the ground and take it where he's most comfortable. His opponent has great takedown defense, but Oliveira will find other ways to exploit the limbs and find submission opportunities.
Why Arman Tsarukyan Will Win
Arman Tsarukyan has built himself into a perennial title contender, but he'll have to get past a former champion if he wants his shot at Islam Makhachev for the title. Tsarukyan's striking is next-level and he's one of the more polished kickboxers in the division. He has insane power for his size and he's been able to notch nine knockouts and five submissions while never being submitted in his career. This will be a huge boost while facing a submission artist like Oliveira, but he'll have to constantly be aware of his opponent setting up submissions from his back. Tsarukyan has a great ground-and-pound game so he'll look to utilize it in these situations.
Arman Tsarukyan is the rightful favorite on a count of his youth and dominant rise to this point. He has an incredibly durable chin and he's only been finished once in his career. Charles Oliveira is also nearly-impossible to finish, so this could quickly become a war of attrition that calls for Tsarukyan to take more control in the fight. Still, he's got all the skills the match Charles Oliveira and he'll have to be perfect in his approach.
Final Charles Oliveira-Arman Tsarukyan Prediction & Pick
This has all the makings of ‘Fight of the Night' and it'll be great to see these two battle it out for a possible title shot. Charles Oliveira has once again been reborn following his last loss and he's determined to once again hold UFC gold following this win. Arman Tsarukyan is on a fast-track to the title and this is the last opponent standing in the way of his dreams.
Charles Oliveira will want to grapple and chase submissions during this fight, but Tsarukyan has yet to be submitted in his career. Both fighters may be met with great resistance when trying to implement their game plans, so it could take some creativity and some risky decisions to get the win here.
Ultimately, Arman Tsarukyan can win this fight if he stays calm and remains fundamental. Charles Oliveira is a master at turning mistakes into his own benefit and he'll only need a Tsarukyan to slip up for a second to find this win.
While it may not be the smart betting pick, I like Charles Oliveira to come away win an upset win here. While he may be the underdog, it's never smart to count him out during a fight and we haven't seen him this big of an underdog in quite some time. Let's take a chance with the underdog as he finds his way back to the title picture after this win.
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Final Charles Oliveira-Arman Tsarukyan Prediction & Pick: Charles Oliveira (+170); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-135)
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